2025 Roland Garros Men's Preview
Previewing the key storylines and men's draw for the upcoming French Open
Jannik Sinner is back and the ATP Tour finally feels whole again. Novak won Geneva to join the 100 titles club (w/ Federer and Connors), and Zverev won Munich and thought he did something. With a little added aura, Roland Garros kicks off with an intriguing set of storylines.
Key Men’s Storylines
Jannik Sinner’s Return Inspires Carlos
Zverev in Shambles
Djokovic Joins 100 Titles Club
Can Anyone Spoil the Sinner-Alcaraz Party?
Jannik’s Return Inspires Carlos to New Heights
Returning from the three month WADA suspension, Jannik Sinner more or less quickly found his world-beating form in Rome including bagel and breadstick’ing Madrid champ Casper Ruud, until he ran into the one man who can actually reach his level of tennis: Carlos Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz’s 2025 started on a weird note when he fumbled the Australian Open Quarter-final by letting his foot off the gas when Novak injured his thigh. After Jannik withdrew from Rotterdam, Carlos went and took his crown (his first indoor hard court title). Then the news of Sinner’s suspension was released and the potential for taking world number one seemed to get in Carlos’s head as he lost in the quarterfinals of Doha, failed to defend his title at Indian Wells losing in the semis to eventual champion Jack Draper. Then things spiraled in Miami when he lost to David Goffin in the 2nd round (!).
But all it took was the clay season for Carlos to turn it around. He won Monte Carlo for the first time and then made the final of Barcelona, before an adductor injury forced him to withdraw from his home tournament in Madrid.
Even after his recent good run on clay, he came into Rome with question marks, both due to his injury and whether he could find that dominating, otherworldly level we’ve seen in the past. He was winning matches but he wasn’t dominating. And then the Rome final where Jannik Sinner’s return and the urgency (and perhaps joy) of needing to reach Sinner’s world number one level, inspired him to new heights. The second set of the Rome final which Alcaraz won 6-1, was Carlos’s best level arguably since the 2024 Wimbledon Final where he routined Djokovic.
The resounding win in the Rome final said emphatically: He’s back and he’s the clear favourite at Roland Garros.
The Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz rivalry is still taking shape and right now it seems to be in its 2006 Nadal-Federer phase. The 06 phase was where Roger was dominating everyone on the tour except for Rafa.
See this Rafa/Roger graphic from 2006:
And this stat on Sinner since the start of 2024:
Record vs Alcaraz: 0-4
Record vs. Everyone Else: 85-3
Jannik is still world number one by a mile and the best (hard court) player in the world, a Roland Garros semifinalist that mows down everyone not named Alcaraz in a more consistent fashion than Alcaraz. While the second set of the Rome final was a bit of a downer for Sinner, it was likely a function of his lack of match play and match toughness. It could be seen as a good way to gauge his form and see what he needs to work on when (if) he faces Carlos in the final.
Obviously he would have liked to win that final and his home tournament, but a little fire in the belly knowing who you have to beat, and the level you have to reach, never hurt anyone going into the 2nd slam of the season.
Zverev Testy After Flopping
After Zverev’s 2nd round win in Rome, the ATP Tour on court interviewer, who is throwing soft balls at the player right after their victory, asked him how it feels to get a victory under his belt in Rome (where he’s defending champion) after having some middling results. Zverev’s response was to call the question stupid:
There’s literally no reason for Zverev to go after the reporter’s question which was perfectly fair considering he was number one in the world while Sinner was suspended, and failed to win a big tournament or even make a deep run. His response instead was that he won a 500 level tournament in Munich so that should shut us all up. But literally look at these results:
Out of a possible 5750 points, Zverev gained 920 over 8 tournaments since the Australian Open and not only did he fail to get world number one when it was right there for the taking, he fell to number three in the world. In addition to the above table, he failed to defend his Rome title, losing to Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals. Both his response to the reporter and his results since the Aussie Open have been kind of pathetic for a world number two or three.
Djokovic Joins 100 Titles Club
It was a strange decision when Novak decided to skip Rome and instead play the Geneva Open, an ATP 250 the week before Roland Garros begins. Historically, Novak never plays the week before a slam, usually because he already has the required results to prepare for that slam or he’s confident in his level that he can go into the slam without a prep tournament (since 2011 he’s rarely played a warm-up tournament before the Australian Open and Wimbledon).
Skipping Rome could have something to do with Novak getting hit in the head with a heavy water bottle last year, or it could be he needed that extra two weeks during the Rome event to work on things in practice, or it could have been to avoid top level competition at a Masters 1000. Other than making the final in Miami, Novak lost his first match at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Madrid.
Perhaps the idea was that entering the Geneva Open would help him gain some confidence in a smaller tournament with lighter competition, to string some wins together, and scrap his way to title number 100.
Critics will say he was ‘vulturing’ a title at an ATP 250 and you could see at the end of the match Djokovic did not celebrate too hardily immediately after the win. Most likely because he knew that Hubi was the better player for the majority of the match. Novak toughed it out as he usually does, but admitted in his on-court interview that Hubi was outplaying him:
“Hubert was probably closer to the victory the entire match than I was. I don’t know how I broke his serve...he probably broke himself when he was 4-3 up. But this is what happens at this level, the highest level.”
After Hubi ‘broke himself’, Novak played his patented ‘no unforced error tiebreak’ and stayed tough waiting for Hubi to make some costly forehand errors.
Whether this spurs Novak’s confidence at Roland Garros is really anyone’s guess. I’m not sure what to take from an ATP 250 victory other than the benefit of Novak not having to hear the ‘100 title talk’ during his run at Roland Garros, which at a minimum will be one less distraction to deal with as he hunts for slam no. 25.
Who Can Spoil The Sinner-Alcaraz Party?
The era of The Big Four and The Big Three is over, but right now we have the new Big Two. Sinner and Alcaraz have taken the last five slams and given the results in Rome, which is often a good predictor of success in Paris, with its similar conditions, there doesn’t seem to be anyone ready to take down this duopoly.
While there is last year’s finalist Zverev, the Slam leader Djokovic, and two time finalist and Madrid champ Ruud in the draw, they are all a notch below right now. Sinner and Alcaraz are in their own stratosphere and it will take a super-human performance over best of five sets to take them down.
The Draw
Projected Quarterfinals by Seeding
1) Jannik Sinner vs. 5) Jack Draper
3) Alexander Zverev vs. 6) Novak Djokovic
4) Taylor Fritz vs. 8) Lorenzo Musetti
2) Carlos Alcaraz vs. 7) Casper Ruud
Popcorn First Round Matches 🍿
14) Arthur Fils vs. Nicolas Jarry
19) Jakub Mensik vs. Alexandre Muller
30) Hubert Hurkacz vs. Joao Fonseca
3) Alexander Zverev vs. Learner Tien
Jacob Fearnley vs. Stan Wawrinka
(1) Sinner’s Quarter
It’s a bit of a loaded section for Sinner and if he’s not sharp there could be some troubles as the tournament progresses. ADF and Arthur Fils could be his opponents in the 3rd and 4th round respectively, with either De Minaur, Jakub Mensik, Jack Draper, or Hubi Hurkacz waiting in the the quarters. While any of these players could come out of this quarter, the possibility of this version of Jack Draper, Indian Wells champ and Madrid finalist, facing Jannik Sinner in a slam quarterfinal would make for a mouth-watering match.
The first round match-up of Joao Fonseca vs. Hurkacz will be one to watch as Hubi is just coming off that grueling final (both physically and emotionally as Hubi was in tears during Novak’s champion’s speech) and Joao hasn’t really made the splash on the tour expected of him since his big upset of Rublev at the Australian Open. Maybe he’s a big match slam player? This is the best first round match on the docket and its ripe for five sets.
(2) Zverev’s Quarter
Zverev really can’t look further than his first round match as he’s lining up against someone who’s already beat him this year in 19-year old American phenom Learner Tien (in Acapulco). Given Zverev’s lack of form and tightness in big matches this could easily be an upset. Beyond that he could face Felix and then Dimitrov or his nemesis Griekspoor who beat him at Indian Wells. At this point, until Sascha shows a run of good form every draw is dangerous for him.
But this quarter is also just dangerous on its face as Djokovic and Medvedev have both landed on the other side of the section. Djokovic and Medvedev’s early rounds don’t seem like they will trouble them, with Djokovic coming off a title and Medvedev saying he’s playing the best clay court tennis of his life:
“On clay I personally feel like I’m playing, honestly, the best level of my life on clay, even considering Rome title [in 2023]. A lot of things came together. If we talk about the game, like the movement, the game, the feeling of the game, I do think I play my best season on clay. So it’s tough for me to answer.
On hard courts it’s easier for me to answer that, yes, I’m far from the Daniil that I was on hard courts. On clay I feel like I’m even better than before. So that’s all I can answer. That’s good for Roland-Garros because I’ll try to show it.”
All that confidence sounds like we could see a Djokovic-Medvedev fourth round clash with the winner to face Zverev or pretty much anyone else in this quarter of the draw.
3) Fritz’s Quarter
In this section, Musetti is the most in-form clay courter as Fritz has not shown any kind of form on clay to think that he can make a run for the first time in his career at Roland Garros. However, Fritz has landed in a soft section up to the 4th round and could easily make the quarters here to justify his ranking.
The only man that could trouble Musetti is Holger Rune, potentially in the 4th round. Holger is unpredictable, one day he looks like he can make The Big Two into The Big Three, and another day he looks decidedly average and like a young kid still trying to fulfill heaps of potential.
Last year, Musetti lost to Novak in a tough five setter in the 3rd round at Roland Garros, a late night thriller that Novak gutted out by sheer force of will and his wealth of big match experience. Musetti has had a great clay court run and lead up to Roland Garros and he looks primed to make his breakthrough to the quarters here.
4) Alcaraz’s Quarter
I wouldn’t say Alcaraz’s draw is difficult but I would say it’s tricky. He’s got Fabian Marozsan potentially waiting in the 2nd round who beat him last year in Rome, along with potentially Mpetshi-Perricard in the 3rd round. No one wants to face Mpetshi Perricard in a slam with that insane serve, where he can take the racquet out of your hand, but you also probably don’t want to face him with a massive French crowd cheering him on. I’m not saying Alcaraz will lose to him but it certainly could pose some troubles if Alcaraz isn’t on his return game.
A couple of former Roland Garros finalists in Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas are in this corner of the draw and of the two, it’s likelier that Ruud will be Alcaraz’s quarterfinal opponent. Americans Ben Shelton and Rome semi-finalist Tommy Paul also landed here and Tommy could potentially trouble Ruud in the 4th round but after winning Madrid and getting the Masters 1000 elephant off his back, I think Casper is feeling good enough about his game to take Tommy out and book a date with Carlitos in the quarters.
Predictions
The only thing that stops an Alcaraz-Sinner final is injury, illness or some other kind of act of God. They’re too strong and too tough over best of five sets and they have been continually dominating slam events for the past year and a half. Here are some other matches I think (hope) we’ll see:
Matches I’d Love to See:
Sinner vs. Fils 3rd Round
Mensik vs. Draper 4th Round
Zverev vs. Dimitrov 4th Round
Djokovic vs. Medvedev 4th Round
Musetti vs. Rune 4th Round
Quarterfinals:
Sinner vs. Draper
Djokovic vs. Cerundolo
Musetti vs. Fritz
Alcaraz vs. Ruud
Semifinals:
Sinner vs. Djokovic
Alcaraz vs. Musetti
Final:
Alcaraz vs. Sinner
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