2025 Indian Wells First Week Recap & Quarterfinal Preview

Novak Lucky Loses Again, Kyrgios Exits in Tears & Zverev Can't Carry the Torch

The first week of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells brought upsets, epic matches and tearful exits. Here’s a rundown of the big stories and a preview of the quarterfinals:

Tennis is a Struggle for Novak Djokovic

Is it time to start asking the question of Novak Djokovic? Is this The Last Year? It was a strangely listless performance by Novak losing to lucky loser Botic van de Zandschulp in Round 2. It’s the second straight year Novak lost to a lucky loser at Indian Wells, last year losing to Luca Nardi in three sets.

Botic has scored some big wins in recent months, beating a basically retired Rafa at 2024 Davis Cup and a burnt out Alcaraz at the 2024 US Open. The loss looked really glaring when Botic immediately lost to a solid but unspectacular Francisco Cerundolo in straights in the next round.

Ever since 2011, Novak Djokovic has had an aura when he walked onto the court. Opponents would face him with a heaping helping of doubt lodged in their stomachs. They knew that even if they played their best they would still probably lose. The years of comprehensive domination built up that aura. The strength of will and physical toll that players needed to exert to even challenge him was daunting. And now ever since winning the gold medal and completing tennis in the summer of 2024, the will and motivation doesn’t seem to be there.

It probably doesn’t help that his two greatest rivals have retired. Rafa and Roger and the rivalry with them always seemed to spur him on. The fire burned brightest when he was seeking to surpass their records and usurp their thrones. But now with the other members of the Big Three retired, Novak has won, the chase is complete.

Novak’s loss to Botic is his third loss in a row in 2025, something he hasn’t accomplished since 2018 when he was struggling post-elbow surgery to find his old form. There was a period in 2018 where he contemplated retirement but he turned it around winning Wimbledon and the US Open that year, so all might not be lost, but this feels different. It feels different in the way Novak is talking after these defeats and even after his big wins.

“You know, things are different obviously for me the last couple of years. I've been struggling to play on the desired level. Every now and then, I have couple good tournaments, but, you know, mostly it's really a challenge. It's a struggle for me.”

Those are some defeated words from Novak. It doesn’t seem like Father Time is winning the battle so much as he’s just mentally not as interested anymore. The injury issues may have contributed but it seems more so a case of lack of match-play and a lack of drive and determination.

It’s quite the swing because after his win over Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open this year, there was a feeling that he was back. He found that top level of tennis, beating one of the top two players in the game, someone who was desperate to win their first Australian Open after winning two majors last year.

He found that old form in his quarter-final win over Carlos Alcaraz perhaps because he summoned that Big Three rivalry energy towards Alcaraz, someone he could envision on the throne of tennis, someone he could chase. He pulled his hamstring at the end of the first set and still navigated his way through the rest of the match in a bit of a ‘rope a dope’ against Alcaraz. But it was telling after the match that Novak said he wished it was the final. The amount of energy and will he needed to exert for that performance, not only took a toll on his hamstring but also his mind. That comment seemed to say he wasn’t sure he had that performance in him again for the semis and likely Sinner in the final.

And he didn’t. With his thigh heavily strapped in the semi-final, he lost the first set tiebreaker to Sascha Zverev and quickly retired from the match. Retiring so fast he shocked Sascha and the crowd, leaving to a chorus of boos so loud that Sascha had to come to his defence in the on-court interview.

So Novak seems to be caught in-between right now. He can’t get the requisite match-play or match toughness if his level or his mind don’t meet the requirements of the tour. It could be he can’t get up or excited for anything but a major tournament, which is understandable given he’s got 24 majors and 99 titles on the ATP Tour. But these back-to-back-to-back losses have to take a toll on his confidence, making it harder to summon the great form for majors when he really needs it. The heat and sun of Miami await where he hasn’t played since 2019. If he can make a run there, gain some confidence, it’ll silence the doubters but if he falters once again ‘The Last Year’ questions will continue.

Kyrgios Retires in Tears

Nick Kyrgios’ comeback is not going well. As Nick was seeing the trainer for his wrist pain and realizing that he had to retire from his match against Botic van de Zandschulp, he started to rub his eyes. The reality of the situation and the reality of his surgically repaired wrist, was beginning to dawn on him and the tears started to flow. It’s been basically two years since Nick has participated in professional tennis and the road to becoming the player he once was, seems to be endlessly frustrating.

After his loss he talked about why he was so emotional:

I guess it's just the amount of work I put in and I'm still having so much discomfort in my wrist. That's I guess why I got a bit emotional towards the end because it's one of my favorite tournaments…But look, like, no one in the sport has had a wrist reconstruction and tried to play after that. There's been players that have had wrist surgeries and nowhere near as bad as what I had.

It all sounds very dark and dire for Nick. He said he was planning on going to Miami but he had to see how the wrist responds to treatment. In his press conference, he continued to strike a somber tone as he reminisced on his great 2022 season where it all finally seemed to come together.

I had an amazing season, literally knocking on the door of a Grand Slam, and then you just get pulled right back, and now you're gonna start from -- I literally don't have a ranking at the moment, was out for one-and-a-half years, and I'm trying to work my way back.

2022 was the breakout season everyone expected of someone with that much talent, he was working hard in practice (finally) and the results were starting to show. I was at Indian Wells in 2022 and I got see him play Casper Rudd on Stadium 2. This was the year Casper challenged for world number one making the final of the French and the US Open. Nick toyed with him at Indian Wells winning 6-4, 6-4.

I was also lucky enough to see him face-off against Rafa in the quarters of that tournament. It was a tough three-setter and Rafa was in-form coming off the ‘Miracle in Melbourne’ Aussie win.

Nick gave Rafa all he could handle in that match. The better results would come later in the year when he would make the final at Wimbledon (benefiting from a Rafa withdrawal in the semis), and making the quarters at the US Open for the first time. He won the doubles title at his home slam and ended the year at no. 22 in singles, with a view to reaching greater heights in 2023. Then he withdrew from the 2023 Australian Open citing a knee injury, then wrist surgery and a long odyssey of rehab followed.

And now he’s back but he’s still not himself. He played one match at the Australian Open, he kind of looked out of shape and not match ready. And now in his second match he’s retired in tears, talking about 2022 with an air of nostalgia and frustration that he can’t find that guy again. And it’s becoming easy to wonder for all of us whether we’ll ever see that Nick Kyrgios again.

Zverev Flops as Top Seed

In our Indian Wells preview we flagged Zverev’s quarter as being trouble for him. It was full of in-form players who won lead-up tournaments, while he was in decidedly bad form after a questionable trip to South America. The added pressure of being the top seed, with a road to potentially taking over the number one ranking while Sinner was suspended, seemed to add to his problems.

After a sub-par performance in South America and Acapulco, he promptly lost his first match in the desert to Tallon Griekspoor, who previously had been 0-18 against top five players. Zverev was 6-4, 5-2 up in the match and ended up losing 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-5. It took Griekspoor six match points to finally end it and after the match signing the camera lens Griekspoor simply wrote, Finally.

Zverev’s season after losing the Australian Open Final can be summed up here:

At his post-match press conference Zverev was asked whether becoming world number one was on his mind:

“It was in the beginning. Now it's less, because I'm just playing terrible. So for me, I have to find my game before thinking about that, because to become World No. 1, you have to win tournaments. I'm not past getting first, second round at the moment. So I need to figure that out first.”

Zverev is not the most popular man on Tennis Twitter, but the Twitter pundits were having a field day at his expense.

After Zverev’s ouster, parts of the draw also blew up, with seeds going down left and right, including: Ruud, Rublev, Djokovic, along with some milder surprise early upsets in Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tomas Machac, Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe. Given the tight turnaround with the Miami Open starting next week, these seeds can take solace in the fact that a bounce-back in Miami can wipe away any bad vibes in the desert.

Quarter-Final Preview

Compared to the men, the women’s seeds have stood strong against any big upsets. Iga has opened up her bakery again and Aryna, Coco, Madison and Mirra Andreeva are all showing imperious form.

On the men’s side, as noted, there have been upsets but each man that’s reached the quarterfinal has taken out a big name to get there, which could mean we’ll have some incredible quarterfinal matches.

Men’s Quarterfinals:

• C. Alcaraz vs. F. Cerundolo

Alcaraz is on a 15-match-winning streak at Indian Wells. He took Grigor to the woodshed in their fourth round match last night. Alcaraz seems to have once again found his game and really kicked off his season in the desert. He has shown a scary level of tennis, bombing 113 mph forehands all over the court. He’s had the best level at the tournament and I don’t see his winning streak ending here.

• B. Shelton vs. J. Draper

This could be a blockbuster quarterfinal. Both players are in great form and have taken out really good players. Something you don’t get to see often is two lefties battling it out. I’ll give the edge to Draper because he reached a level in the middle of his 4th round match with Fritz that was downright scary. Even Fritz seemed stunned.

Not to mention that Draper took out young phenom Joao Fonseca rather easily (our pick to make the semis 🤦‍♂️). Draper and Alcaraz have been the class of the tournament so far, so a semi between them should be fireworks.

• D. Medvedev vs. A. Fils

Medvedev always seems to find his game at Indian Wells. Once again he’s making a run in the desert and his convincing win over Tommy Paul seemed like the Meddy of old. Arthur Fils played an epic match against Musetti and then backed it up with a solid win over Giron. I’ll go with Medvedev because of the pedigree and his record at Indian Wells but Fils could easily get the upset.

• H. Rune vs. T. Griekspoor

Holger Rune routine’d the Racquet Rejuvenated Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4 (our pick to be in the semi-final🤦‍♂️). Holger’s game is so big that sometimes it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more titles. Tsitsipas was full of confidence coming into the match and for Holger to take him out rather easily was very impressive. Griekspoor took down Zverev but Zverev hasn’t been in great form. I’ll take Rune because of the level he showed in that Tsitsipas win but would not be surprised if Rune lays an egg, he’s so unpredictable.

Semifinal Predictions: Alcaraz vs. Draper & Medvedev vs. Rune

Women’s Quarterfinals:

• A. Sabalenka vs. L. Samsonova

Samsonova has had a great run to the quarters at Indian Wells but it likely ends here. Aryna likes these bouncy, slow hard courts where the balls land right in her strike zone and she’s strong enough to blast her way through.

• M. Keys vs. B. Bencic

Madison is the defending Aussie Open champion and has developed a match toughness she’s never had before. Belinda is on her comeback after becoming a mother and has shown great form and a knowledge of how to play big matches. She takes the ball early and redirects it better than probably anyone in the women’s game. Bencic outfoxed Coco Gauff but I’m not sure she can handle Madison’s pace and power when Madison is on. Their head to head is 2-2 but they haven’t played since 2022. Madison is a completely new player since then and now a major winner taking out the best players in the world.

• M. Andreeva vs. E. Svitolina

Top ten phenom Mirra Andreeva absolutely slaughtered Elena Rybakina the other night and the 17 year old continues to impress with her confidence and poise in big matches. Svitolina had a great win over Jess Pegula, but Mirra taking down Elena Rybakina in such emphatic fashion says something about her form.

• I. Swiatek vs. Q. Zheng

Iga is once again looking dominant, shades of that 2022 form when she swept through and won Doha, Indian Wells and Miami. Her bakery has re-opened handing out at least one bagel or breadstick to each of her opponents. She’s lost a total of 6 games to make the quarterfinals. I’m not betting against that.

Semifinals Predictions: Sabalenka vs. Keys, Andreeva vs. Swiatek

News and Notes

• Dimitrov and Monfils might have played the match of the tournament in Round 3. On Stadium 2, Dimitrov prevailed past midnight in a third set tiebreaker, with the old veterans sharing a hug at the net after almost three hours of battling it out on the court.

• Carlos Alcaraz is flexing a new tattoo which promos the date of his upcoming Netflix doc, not sure why this warrants a tattoo on the level of his other tattoos which commemorate his grand slam wins, but hey, Netflix money is good.

• It was a comprehensive performance by Rune in his victory over Tsitsipas, maybe his best of the year, including this tweener lob, shot of the year candidate:

• In his match against Damir Dzumhur, Frances Tiafoe forgot his racquets:

• And then in his next match he pretended to forget his racquets again:

• Andy Roddick’s podcast Served pulled the get of the year, getting Rafa Nadal to come on and talk about his life with Andy. It was a great conversation between two retired rivals, and Rafa gave great insights into his retirement, the Olympic torch ceremony, his rivalry with Federer and Djokovic, as well as a fascinating discussion breaking down the Xs and Os of the game.