2025 Australian Open Women's Draw Breakdown
Picks and analysis for the women's draw of the first major of the 2025 season
It’s been 2025 for a hot minute and the 2025 Aussie Open has already kicked off with some first round matches but before the tournament hits full bloom I wanted to put some thoughts down and delve into the women’s side of the draw, so lets get right into it.
Key Storylines Heading into the Aussie Open:
The defending champion, Aryna Sabalenka, heads into the AO far and away the best player on hard courts and the number one player in the world. She’s going for the AO three-peat and back to back majors and unlike many of her competitors there are no outside issues that can cause distraction from that goal.
The 2nd seed, Iga Swiatek, has distractions galore and along with the doping scandal, she’s come to Melbourne with a whole new coaching team. In her pre-tournament presser she said the new partnership is going well but then she had to plow through a barrage of questions on the melatonin contamination. Not the best foot to get the tournament started on.
Since Coco crashed out of the US Open in the 4th round last year, she got a new coach and went on a tear to end 2024, winning the China Open, the WTA Finals, rising to no. 3 in the world. She kicked off 2025 by putting on an MVP performance at the United Cup. Most notably, she straight-setted Iga at the WTA Finals and the United Cup. A co-favorite with Aryna.
When Elena Rybakina parted ways with coach Stefano Vukov just before the 2024 US Open the internet and outside observers rejoiced. They had questioned their coaching relationship amidst a string of mysterious health-related withdrawals by Elena throughout 2024. And then she hired Goran Ivanisevic and she was all smiles and back on the tour. But then she re-hired Stefano and the WTA was forced to admit that he was currently banned from coaching on the tour and there was ongoing investigation underway. Investigating what is entirely unclear. Elena has said she has no problems with him. Rumors abound that the investigation will announce a decision by the end of this week and some clarity will arrive for Elena, Stefano and Goran.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka’s Quarter Seeds:
Qinwen Zheng (5)
Diana Shnaider (12)
Mirra Andreeva (14)
Donna Vekic (18)
Magdalena Frech (23)
Linda Noskova (29)
Qinwen Zheng, Mirra Andreeva and Donna Vekic landing in Sabalenka’s corner of the draw adds some drama to this section. Qinwen was Aryna’s final opponent last year but it really wasn’t close. Mirra, the 17 year old phenom, just lost to Aryna in Brisbane and who knows what kind of growth she can achieve in a short time but right now Aryna is at a different level. Vekic has the power game to compete with Aryna but the speed and consistency isn’t quite there and while she quartered here two years ago, the rest of her results don’t give much confidence.
I could see a finals rematch in the quarters but I don’t see the result any different. Aryna’s power game can rip through anyone and she is riding high on confidence not having lost a hard court major match in more than a year and in her pre-tournament presser talked about enjoying the feeling of being chased by the rest of the field. That sounds like someone who loves being number one and doesn’t plan on giving it up anytime soon.
Semifinalist: Aryna Sabalenka
(3) Coco Gauff’s Quarter Seeds:
Jessica Pegula (7)
Jelena Ostapenko (16)
Marta Kostyuk (17)
Karolina Muchova (20)
Paula Badosa (26)
Leylah Fernandez (30)
As noted above Coco has been on a world-beating run and at first glance there doesn’t seem much in this quarter of the draw that can trouble her. However, Ostapenko on the right day can blast anyone off the court, Pegula is fresh off a US Open final and Badosa has started to find that old form that had her win Indian Wells. As well, Muchova is dangerous having made the final at the French a couple years back and back to back semis at the US Open the past couple of years.
Perhaps if these players find some inspired form they could cause some problems for Coco. She’s high on confidence but all her success last year was after the last major of the season, and sometimes dominating at a slam is a much different prospect than at the tailend of a long season. That sounds more negative than it should as I’m still taking Coco, mainly because of those two victories over Iga. To me they showed that she’s ready to beat the top players and she’s hungry to prove it in Australia.
Semifinalist: Coco Gauff
(4) Jasmine Paolini’s Quarter Seeds:
Elena Rybakina (6)
Danielle Collins (10)
Madison Keys (19)
Katie Boulter (22)
Elina Svitolina (28)
Dayana Yastremska (32)
The big question in this quarter is whether Paolini can back up her ranking and major results from last year. She came out of relative obscurity last year to final at RG and Wimbledon. She made the 4th round of every major last year after not having been past Round 2 at any major in the previous 4 years of her career.
In her quarter of the draw she’s surrounded by Major finalists and a Slam winner in Elena Rybakina. If any of Danielle Collins, Adelaide winner Madison Keys or Aussie Katie Boulter have a good week they could easily be the semifinalist. Elena comes with coaching controversy swirling around her, Collins hasn’t found that early 2024 form and who knows if Madison will back up her results in Adelaide. Rybakina a former finalist here does have the game that should take her to the semis if she can block out all the Vukov investigation noise. Given this quarter is a bit of a toss up I have to go with the best resume and biggest game in it.
Semifinalist: Elena Rybakina
(2) Iga Swiatek’s Quarter Seeds:
Emma Navarro (8)
Daria Kasatkina (9)
Anna Kalinskaya (13)
Victoria Azarenka (21)
Yulia Putintseva (24)
Maria Sakkari (31)
This quarter is Iga’s to lose, and much like Elena she’ll need to block out the noise from outside distractions. Iga is notoriously protective of, and focused on, her mental state and I think she’ll find some peace on the court away from the pressers asking her about the timeline when she found out she tested positive and how she escaped a lengthy ban. There are a number of solid pros in her quarter but she has to like her draw.
Emma Navarro took out Coco last year at the US Open so she’s a dangerous competitor. Otherwise, I don’t think Azarenka has the firepower anymore to challenge for majors and Kalinskaya is still too inconsistent at slams to be a true contender (though she did make the quarters at the AO last year). If Iga has a dip in form related to outside distractions it could happen but right now, I don’t see it.
Semifinalist: Iga Swiatek
The complete women’s draw can be found here
Semifinal Predictions:
Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff: This semi-final should be absolute cinema and I could easily see Coco Gauff taking this but right now, you simply cannot bet against Aryna she’s the best player on hard court, two time defending AO champion, US Open champion and Number One with a bullet.
Iga Swiatek def. Elena Rybakina: The battle of the women ensnared in controversy through no fault of their own would be another solid semi and I’m taking Iga only because she just recently beat Elena at the United Cup. This could truly go either way and if both of these semis end up happening it will be an epic finish to the women’s tournament. Crossing fingers this shapes up.
2025 AO Final:
Aryna Sabalenka def. Iga Swiatek: These two played the best match of 2024 at the Madrid Open Final and if this final actually happens the hype will be legit. I’m still taking Aryna because she pushed Iga to the limit on Iga’s favourite surface (granted it was clay at altitude) but on hard court Iga has not proven she can challenge Aryna especially the otherworldly level Aryna has found at hard court majors the past few years. You simply cannot bet against Aryna’s results on here and I refuse to do so.
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