Carlos Alcaraz Goes God Mode in New York

At 1-3 in the first set of the 2025 US Open final, Carlos Alcaraz hit a volley so ridiculous the New York crowd lost its mind.

It was already 0-15, Jannik Sinner serving, and Carlos pounced on a second serve. The return pulled Sinner into the doubles alley and he responded with a heavy backhand deep into Alcaraz’s backhand corner. Against most players, Sinner’s backhand would force a neutral or defensive reply. But Alcaraz had only one word in his playbook: Attack. He did one of the most difficult things in tennis, he took Sinner’s pace and redirected it, smoking the ball down the line.

The ball skidded off the sideline, sending Sinner scrambling cross court to retrieve it. Recognizing that, Carlos surged forward. He was a little late though, so before he even reached the service line, Sinner had already uncorked a forehand missile headed straight to his feet. Carlos was seemingly caught in no man’s land. Ninety-nine of a hundred players would flub the volley, or at best float it back for Sinner to crush. Alcaraz did neither. He quickly hopped aside, stabbed his racquet at the ball, and somehow feathered the supersonic forehand into the far corner of the service box as if he’d placed it by hand. Sinner took one step and then didn’t even bother.

On the broadcast, Mary Carillo gasped. The Ashe crowd erupted. Jim Courier sounded as if something broke in his brain, blurting out, “How does he do that?”

Even Alcaraz mouthed wow toward his box and smiled:

After that point, the final was basically over. Alcaraz seemed to come into the final with a game plan: attack the second serve, rip the forehand at any opportunity and don’t let up.

What made Carlos fallible in the past were the dips, his relative youth and smiling nature meant he wasn’t a cold blooded killer like Sinner, he’d play with his food a bit. He’d look for the impossible shot, trying to bring the crowd to its feet, and sometimes miss, causing him to lose to lesser opponents. But he parked the showman for the final. This was Carlos as trained assassin, walking in there with a suffocating strategy and executing it, with brilliance now a byproduct rather than the goal.

Carlos Flips The Script

Two months earlier at Wimbledon, Sinner responded to that devastating Roland Garros final loss by turning Centre Court into his laboratory, dissecting Carlos’s game with clinical precision. By the time they arrived in New York, Sinner was the slight favourite: defending champion, reigning Wimbledon winner, a showdown on his preferred surface looming. Alcaraz, despite leading the head-to-head, seemed to be chasing him.

But this was not last year’s Open, when Botic van de Zandschlup stunned Carlitos early1. Alcaraz hadn’t dropped a set before the final. The Spaniard faced just nine break points before the final, and saved seven of them. He lost three service games the whole tournament. He steamrolled Djokovic in straights in what ended up being his worst tennis of the fortnight.

In executing his Attack game plan, Alcaraz took on the features of his rival: he was clinical. Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero described it as "a perfect performance.” He wasn’t playing to put the crowd in hysterics, he was playing to dominate. And if it happened that a ‘wow’ volley materialized, it was as a result of executing planned tactics, not for the sake of the highlight reel.

After the final, Alcaraz reflected that this was the best tournament he’d played start to finish. Ferrero revealed that skipping the Canada Masters was used to study tape of the Wimbledon loss and get in the lab and work towards one goal: defeating Jannik Sinner.

Carlos showed that when he attacks with discipline, when the forehand goes nuclear and the smile is beaming, no one in the sport, Jannik Sinner included, can survive the storm.

Facing Alcaraz’s blitzkrieg, Sinner looked dazed. His game went off the rails, his serve and his forehand, usually weapons of mass destruction, went haywire. For once, the ‘AI-generated’2 player broke down.

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Jannik Searching for Answers

For Jannik Sinner, the final felt different from the start. The patterns he usually trusted, rushing the other player with brutal forehands and heavy backhands weren’t landing with their usual venom. Alcaraz was using his foot-speed to get there early and take away his time.

He was feeling rushed not only on the ground but on serve. Alcaraz’s blueprint of attacking the second serve was having a ripple effect on the first. His first serve percentage plummeted to 48%, giving Carlos many more opportunities to attack the second.

Between points, the frustration showed. The small shake of the head after a missed forehand, the quick glance to his box that seemed to be seeking answers. At one point, he launched a ball up to the roof of Ashe, a rare display of frustration from the cool Italian.

After the match, Jannik was unusually open and candid about making changes to his game. He talked about changing things on his serve, tweaking things to become a better tennis player3. It was startling coming from a man who up until that match was the number one player in the world for the past year.

Jannik talked about how when you win too easily you don’t try new things. He was winning with his ‘B’ game and when he was searching for his ‘A’ game, it wasn’t there. He rued the fact that he didn’t try one serve and volley the whole tournament and rarely displayed any variety in his game.

That final shook Sinner so deeply he even said he’s willing to experiment during matches, risk even losing to lesser opponents, if it means adding variety to his game and finding a way past the only one that matters: Alcaraz.

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The Rivalry at a Crossroads

This God mode performance by Carlos has us thinking that he’s turned a corner in his maturation as a tennis player. He was sticking to a game plan and executing highlight reel plays all in one package. It begs the question of whether we are witnessing Carlos Alcaraz begin a new adult phase of his career, where he’s diligent about committing to deconstructing his opponents without the focus on showmanship.

Sinner’s response after the soul-crushing Roland Garros loss with a Wimbledon victory was heartening for what their rivalry can become and how the script could flip so quickly. After the Roland Garros final, he didn’t talk about changes to his game because he was right there on the precipice of victory. But at the US Open, he wasn’t close. It was a shattering experience for Jannik Sinner, a reminder that the AI generated player’s code still needs rewriting. He must adapt and re-tool or watch the tour succumb to the Alcaraz era.

Shanghai, Paris, and the ATP Finals in Turin loom, a chance for Sinner to beta test his new programming and tip the scales of the rivalry in his direction. But the way Alcaraz destroyed him might make the Wimbledon final an aberration. With all the talk of their epic encounters and taking the torch from The Big Three, this could be a one-sided rivalry; Carlos has won seven of their last eight matches.

The volley that made Carlos mouth wow could be a signal of what’s to come, a 22 year old realizing the breadth and scope of his talents in real time. Or Sinner could add a new functionality in their next match up that forces Alcaraz back to the lab. What’s scarier for Sinner and the rest of the tour is this: if Alcaraz is surprising himself now, discovering new strokes of genius on the fly, what happens when he can summon them at will?

Rivalry - ri·val·ry/ˈrīvəlrē/ noun;

competition for the same objective or for superiority in the same field.

It’s a gift to be able to pinpoint, in real time, when exactly a rivalry became iconic. It happened for the Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz rivalry during the fourth set of the 2025 Roland Garros final when the score-line looked like this:

And then Alcaraz saved three championship points, won the game with an outrageous winner (off a pretty great return by Sinner) and the crowd jumped to their feet. Carlitos held his hand to his ear and swaggered to his chair like a man who knew he was going to a fifth set. Suddenly, we were watching a match that carried the air of something not only historic, but epic.

The ink on Rafa Nadal’s plaque embedded within the red clay of Court Philippe Chatrier had barely dried, and suddenly Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz had catapulted their rivalry into the pantheon with the likes of Borg-McEnroe and Federer-Nadal-Djokovic.

And even though the 2025 Wimbledon final didn’t live up to the hype, it deepened the rivalry by causing a disruption in Alcaraz’s dominance. Because a rivalry can’t be about one dominating another, a true rivalry requires each to wound the other.

A Rivalry Becomes Unique to its Own Construction

The all time rivalries— Ali-Frazier, Borg-McEnroe, Bird-Magic, Martina-Chrissy and Nadal-Federer— go beyond just competition for superiority in the same field, their rivalry has its own gravitational force, born of the opposition and shared mythology. They elevate and transform both into something greater than they could be alone.

The great ones share not only athletic but philosophical differences. Icy Borg and fiery McEnroe, Ali’s élan and eloquence, Frazier’s power and hyper-competency, Federer’s Swiss precision and Nadal’s Spanish passion.

Alcaraz is fueled by emotion, he wants to push the crowd into hysterics, like joy itself is the whole point. Alcaraz’s game is a celebration of going for the big shot with reckless abandon. He’s inconsistent, but when he’s riding high, smiling and playing free, his whole body springs into his forehand, his arm whipping out toward the ball like a scorpion’s tail, so fast you barely can see it strike.

Sinner is an engineer of angles, mathematical in his commitment, menacingly consistent. While Alcaraz’s game can be non-linear, Sinner plays in a straight line, but the line is drawn with a machine gun. His ability to hit 30 identical forehands with exactly zero deviation in shape or depth makes the rest of the tour feel like he’s playing at 2x speed1. Sinner runs cool, rarely showing emotion other than a pronounced fist pump, even when a cloud of controversy looms over his head, he still has the same game —unrelenting, militant, like a massive tank blitzing you with a constant barrage that grounds you into dust.

Coming off the heels of The Big Three era, you can’t help but see the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry through the lens of that tri-valry. The instant classic Roland Garros final was a Frankenstein of a match, taking elements from The Big Three’s classics, fusing them together to create something new. It had the two sets to love comeback (2022 AO Final), the lost match points and 5th set super tiebreaker (2019 Wimbledon Final), and the 5 hours plus length (2012 AO Final).

The tension in Jannik and Carlos’s contrasting styles opens up questions of which will carry tennis’s future? Spontaneity or structure? Risk or restraint? In the end, as chapters in their rivalry add to their shared mythology, the gravitational force of it will become its own thing, unique in its construction as the all time greats.

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The Roland Garros Final Cements The Rivalry

The first two sets of the final felt off kilter. Sinner was his usual murderously consistent self, pulverizing groundstrokes at Alcaraz off both wings. Carlitos would find periods of brilliance but couldn’t sustain it, he would get down a break, create brilliance for a game and break back, and then falter again.

And thus, he was down two sets to love to the number one player in the world. When the commentators pointed out that Alcaraz had never come back from two sets to love down, it felt like they were speaking it into existence. But Alcaraz looked unmoored, his usual exuberance giving way to uncertainty. Sinner, clinical as ever, was constructing points with almost architectural clarity.

Then Alcaraz found some inner reserve to save those championship points and clawed his way back with inspiration and defiance, summoning otherworldly shots and forehands from the gods. Jannik didn’t do much wrong (though he might want the missed return back on a second serve at 15-40), Carlos just increased his shot depth, speed and placement, to hit outright winners or cause Jannik to miss.

And once Carlos took the 4th set tiebreaker, that above score-line immediately seemed fated to join other famous all-time classic match graphics:

The greatest finals turn into something out of myth, like an opera in five acts soaring with dramatic swings and descending into eerie quiet in the tensest moments. What made this final unforgettable wasn’t just the drama or epic score-line—it was also the human frailty of it. For the first time, Sinner’s stoicism began to fray and anxiety seemed to take over. Alcaraz rose to the moment, and with his final forehand blasting past Jannik, Carlos fell to the clay and wept from the emotional toll of survival.

In the Paris early evening, atop the crushed red brick, the rivalry was canonized. There was a feeling that we witnessed two young men finding the peak of their physical gifts, locked in combat for legacy and for the simple act of competition— of ‘superiority in the same field’.

After the match, Alcaraz took a picture with the clock showing 5 hours 29 minutes, ala Djokovic in 2012. Sinner was disconsolate, weeks after in Halle he would say he still hasn’t been sleeping well. These all time great matches blur the line between sport and humanity and create something more: endurance as art, triumph as history and loss as tragedy.

"Every match that I'm playing against him is important honestly. This is the first match in a Grand Slam final. Hopefully not the last time. Because I mean, as I said many times, every time that we face against each other, we raise our level to the top."

- Carlos Alcaraz, after the Roland Garros final

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The Rivalry Deepens At Wimbledon

A little over a month later, this time on the lawns of the All England Club, they would meet again with a gulf seemingly widened between the two. Alcaraz built up an 8-4 head-to-head record and had won their last five matches. There were additional question marks around Sinner, whether he had any psychological scars from that Roland Garros loss, and physical ones after sustaining an elbow injury during his 4th round match vs. Grigor Dimitrov.

Alcaraz capped off the first set by winning a spectacular point, and you began to think that maybe creative inspiration would again carry the day:

But the Wimbledon final couldn’t replicate the magic in Paris. If the Roland Garros final was an opera, then this was a sonnet: shorter and sharper. Where Roland Garros turned on chaos and drama, Wimbledon was a final of control.

In the first game of the second set, Sinner immediately broke Carlos’s serve and went on to not just defeat Alcaraz, but almost reduce him. He defused the emotional explosions, removed the drama, and blunted the creative inspiration that Carlos found in Paris. Jannik’s game carrying the sterile chill of a hospital operating room, went to work like a surgeon, coolly and calmly dissecting Alcaraz’s game from the inside out. Alcaraz was left searching for answers, barking at his box that he was being outplayed from the baseline2.

Sinner also came up with some Alcaraz-like brilliance himself, hitting two running forehand winners to close out the second set that had the fans on their feet:

Just look at those last two points, Alcaraz rips an incredible forehand to put Sinner in a tough position but he finds a way to respond with an even bigger one. For all of Carlos’s brilliance, Sinner made him look ineffectual. From the second set onward, Alcaraz couldn’t even muster a break point. The last three sets were coldly uniform, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 Sinner.

It was as if the Roland Garros final’s script had been rewritten, removing the dramatic third act and creating an alternate timeline, where Sinner converted those championship points and ended that final’s script during Act Two. It made for a less enthralling final but Sinner’s revenge made the future of the rivalry all the more intriguing.

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Where Does The Rivalry Go From Here?

With Alcaraz’s first loss in a slam final, his aura is now slightly less untouchable but the rivalry is deepened. Both of them have combined to win the past seven grand slam titles, and now have the singular goal of beating the other. Studies show that a rivalry or ‘a relational competition’, is known to increase motivation and performance. When even recreational runners focus on a rival in their run club, their times improve dramatically. Alcaraz and Sinner’s greatness is now inextricably tied together, helping them reach heights they would never reach without the other.

In its current form, the rivalry seems to be one of temperament, of joy meeting resolve, of risk meeting restraint. A great rivalry defines the limits of each and then tests the other to see who can break through those limits, who can find a better version of themselves under the glow of the sport’s biggest spotlight.

Carlos and Jannik both withdrew from the Canada Masters to recover and rehab their aching bodies. They will make their summer hard court debut in Cincinnati, with the sole focus of beating the other at the US Open.

What’s exciting is that these two are at the beginning of their respective careers and are still iterating on what their rivalry is going to become. We don’t know who’s going to dominate and for how long, and who will have to problem solve and find a higher level. Which is thrilling because maybe it means the best is yet to come, and that the Roland Garros final was just a first draft, and the true masterpiece Alcaraz and Sinner’s rivalry will create lies somewhere just ahead.

Key Men’s Storylines

• Jannik Sinner’s Return Inspires Carlos

• Zverev in Shambles

• Djokovic Joins 100 Titles Club

• Can Anyone Spoil the Sinner-Alcaraz Party?

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Jannik’s Return Inspires Carlos to New Heights

Returning from the three month WADA suspension, Jannik Sinner more or less quickly found his world-beating form in Rome including bagel and breadstick’ing Madrid champ Casper Ruud, until he ran into the one man who can actually reach his level of tennis: Carlos Alcaraz.

Carlos Alcaraz’s 2025 started on a weird note when he fumbled the Australian Open Quarter-final by letting his foot off the gas when Novak injured his thigh. After Jannik withdrew from Rotterdam, Carlos went and took his crown (his first indoor hard court title). Then the news of Sinner’s suspension was released and the potential for taking world number one seemed to get in Carlos’s head as he lost in the quarterfinals of Doha, failed to defend his title at Indian Wells losing in the semis to eventual champion Jack Draper. Then things spiraled in Miami when he lost to David Goffin in the 2nd round (!).

But all it took was the clay season for Carlos to turn it around. He won Monte Carlo for the first time and then made the final of Barcelona, before an adductor injury forced him to withdraw from his home tournament in Madrid.

Even after his recent good run on clay, he came into Rome with question marks, both due to his injury and whether he could find that dominating, otherworldly level we’ve seen in the past. He was winning matches but he wasn’t dominating. And then the Rome final where Jannik Sinner’s return and the urgency (and perhaps joy) of needing to reach Sinner’s world number one level, inspired him to new heights. The second set of the Rome final which Alcaraz won 6-1, was Carlos’s best level arguably since the 2024 Wimbledon Final where he routined Djokovic.

The resounding win in the Rome final said emphatically: He’s back and he’s the clear favourite at Roland Garros.

The Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz rivalry is still taking shape and right now it seems to be in its 2006 Nadal-Federer phase. The 06 phase was where Roger was dominating everyone on the tour except for Rafa.

See this Rafa/Roger graphic from 2006:

And this stat on Sinner since the start of 2024:

Record vs Alcaraz: 0-4

Record vs. Everyone Else: 85-3

Jannik is still world number one by a mile and the best (hard court) player in the world, a Roland Garros semifinalist that mows down everyone not named Alcaraz in a more consistent fashion than Alcaraz. While the second set of the Rome final was a bit of a downer for Sinner, it was likely a function of his lack of match play and match toughness. It could be seen as a good way to gauge his form and see what he needs to work on when (if) he faces Carlos in the final.

Obviously he would have liked to win that final and his home tournament, but a little fire in the belly knowing who you have to beat, and the level you have to reach, never hurt anyone going into the 2nd slam of the season.

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Zverev Testy After Flopping

After Zverev’s 2nd round win in Rome, the ATP Tour on court interviewer, who is throwing soft balls at the player right after their victory, asked him how it feels to get a victory under his belt in Rome (where he’s defending champion) after having some middling results. Zverev’s response was to call the question stupid:

There’s literally no reason for Zverev to go after the reporter’s question which was perfectly fair considering he was number one in the world while Sinner was suspended, and failed to win a big tournament or even make a deep run. His response instead was that he won a 500 level tournament in Munich so that should shut us all up. But literally look at these results:

Out of a possible 5750 points, Zverev gained 920 over 8 tournaments since the Australian Open and not only did he fail to get world number one when it was right there for the taking, he fell to number three in the world. In addition to the above table, he failed to defend his Rome title, losing to Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals. Both his response to the reporter and his results since the Aussie Open have been kind of pathetic for a world number two or three.

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Djokovic Joins 100 Titles Club

It was a strange decision when Novak decided to skip Rome and instead play the Geneva Open, an ATP 250 the week before Roland Garros begins. Historically, Novak never plays the week before a slam, usually because he already has the required results to prepare for that slam or he’s confident in his level that he can go into the slam without a prep tournament (since 2011 he’s rarely played a warm-up tournament before the Australian Open and Wimbledon).

Skipping Rome could have something to do with Novak getting hit in the head with a heavy water bottle last year, or it could be he needed that extra two weeks during the Rome event to work on things in practice, or it could have been to avoid top level competition at a Masters 1000. Other than making the final in Miami, Novak lost his first match at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Madrid.

Perhaps the idea was that entering the Geneva Open would help him gain some confidence in a smaller tournament with lighter competition, to string some wins together, and scrap his way to title number 100.

Critics will say he was ‘vulturing’ a title at an ATP 250 and you could see at the end of the match Djokovic did not celebrate too hardily immediately after the win. Most likely because he knew that Hubi was the better player for the majority of the match. Novak toughed it out as he usually does, but admitted in his on-court interview that Hubi was outplaying him:

“Hubert was probably closer to the victory the entire match than I was. I don’t know how I broke his serve...he probably broke himself when he was 4-3 up. But this is what happens at this level, the highest level.”

After Hubi ‘broke himself’, Novak played his patented ‘no unforced error tiebreak’ and stayed tough waiting for Hubi to make some costly forehand errors.

Whether this spurs Novak’s confidence at Roland Garros is really anyone’s guess. I’m not sure what to take from an ATP 250 victory other than the benefit of Novak not having to hear the ‘100 title talk’ during his run at Roland Garros, which at a minimum will be one less distraction to deal with as he hunts for slam no. 25.

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Who Can Spoil The Sinner-Alcaraz Party?

The era of The Big Four and The Big Three is over, but right now we have the new Big Two. Sinner and Alcaraz have taken the last five slams and given the results in Rome, which is often a good predictor of success in Paris, with its similar conditions, there doesn’t seem to be anyone ready to take down this duopoly.

While there is last year’s finalist Zverev, the Slam leader Djokovic, and two time finalist and Madrid champ Ruud in the draw, they are all a notch below right now. Sinner and Alcaraz are in their own stratosphere and it will take a super-human performance over best of five sets to take them down.

The Draw

Projected Quarterfinals by Seeding

• 1) Jannik Sinner vs. 5) Jack Draper

• 3) Alexander Zverev vs. 6) Novak Djokovic

• 4) Taylor Fritz vs. 8) Lorenzo Musetti

• 2) Carlos Alcaraz vs. 7) Casper Ruud

Popcorn First Round Matches 🍿

• 14) Arthur Fils vs. Nicolas Jarry

• 19) Jakub Mensik vs. Alexandre Muller

• 30) Hubert Hurkacz vs. Joao Fonseca

• 3) Alexander Zverev vs. Learner Tien

• Jacob Fearnley vs. Stan Wawrinka

(1) Sinner’s Quarter

It’s a bit of a loaded section for Sinner and if he’s not sharp there could be some troubles as the tournament progresses. ADF and Arthur Fils could be his opponents in the 3rd and 4th round respectively, with either De Minaur, Jakub Mensik, Jack Draper, or Hubi Hurkacz waiting in the the quarters. While any of these players could come out of this quarter, the possibility of this version of Jack Draper, Indian Wells champ and Madrid finalist, facing Jannik Sinner in a slam quarterfinal would make for a mouth-watering match.

The first round match-up of Joao Fonseca vs. Hurkacz will be one to watch as Hubi is just coming off that grueling final (both physically and emotionally as Hubi was in tears during Novak’s champion’s speech) and Joao hasn’t really made the splash on the tour expected of him since his big upset of Rublev at the Australian Open. Maybe he’s a big match slam player? This is the best first round match on the docket and its ripe for five sets.

(2) Zverev’s Quarter

Zverev really can’t look further than his first round match as he’s lining up against someone who’s already beat him this year in 19-year old American phenom Learner Tien (in Acapulco). Given Zverev’s lack of form and tightness in big matches this could easily be an upset. Beyond that he could face Felix and then Dimitrov or his nemesis Griekspoor who beat him at Indian Wells. At this point, until Sascha shows a run of good form every draw is dangerous for him.

But this quarter is also just dangerous on its face as Djokovic and Medvedev have both landed on the other side of the section. Djokovic and Medvedev’s early rounds don’t seem like they will trouble them, with Djokovic coming off a title and Medvedev saying he’s playing the best clay court tennis of his life:

“On clay I personally feel like I’m playing, honestly, the best level of my life on clay, even considering Rome title [in 2023]. A lot of things came together. If we talk about the game, like the movement, the game, the feeling of the game, I do think I play my best season on clay. So it’s tough for me to answer.

On hard courts it’s easier for me to answer that, yes, I’m far from the Daniil that I was on hard courts. On clay I feel like I’m even better than before. So that’s all I can answer. That’s good for Roland-Garros because I’ll try to show it.”

All that confidence sounds like we could see a Djokovic-Medvedev fourth round clash with the winner to face Zverev or pretty much anyone else in this quarter of the draw.

3) Fritz’s Quarter

In this section, Musetti is the most in-form clay courter as Fritz has not shown any kind of form on clay to think that he can make a run for the first time in his career at Roland Garros. However, Fritz has landed in a soft section up to the 4th round and could easily make the quarters here to justify his ranking.

The only man that could trouble Musetti is Holger Rune, potentially in the 4th round. Holger is unpredictable, one day he looks like he can make The Big Two into The Big Three, and another day he looks decidedly average and like a young kid still trying to fulfill heaps of potential.

Last year, Musetti lost to Novak in a tough five setter in the 3rd round at Roland Garros, a late night thriller that Novak gutted out by sheer force of will and his wealth of big match experience. Musetti has had a great clay court run and lead up to Roland Garros and he looks primed to make his breakthrough to the quarters here.

4) Alcaraz’s Quarter

I wouldn’t say Alcaraz’s draw is difficult but I would say it’s tricky. He’s got Fabian Marozsan potentially waiting in the 2nd round who beat him last year in Rome, along with potentially Mpetshi-Perricard in the 3rd round. No one wants to face Mpetshi Perricard in a slam with that insane serve, where he can take the racquet out of your hand, but you also probably don’t want to face him with a massive French crowd cheering him on. I’m not saying Alcaraz will lose to him but it certainly could pose some troubles if Alcaraz isn’t on his return game.

A couple of former Roland Garros finalists in Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas are in this corner of the draw and of the two, it’s likelier that Ruud will be Alcaraz’s quarterfinal opponent. Americans Ben Shelton and Rome semi-finalist Tommy Paul also landed here and Tommy could potentially trouble Ruud in the 4th round but after winning Madrid and getting the Masters 1000 elephant off his back, I think Casper is feeling good enough about his game to take Tommy out and book a date with Carlitos in the quarters.

Predictions

The only thing that stops an Alcaraz-Sinner final is injury, illness or some other kind of act of God. They’re too strong and too tough over best of five sets and they have been continually dominating slam events for the past year and a half. Here are some other matches I think (hope) we’ll see:

Matches I’d Love to See:

• Sinner vs. Fils 3rd Round

• Mensik vs. Draper 4th Round

• Zverev vs. Dimitrov 4th Round

• Djokovic vs. Medvedev 4th Round

• Musetti vs. Rune 4th Round

Quarterfinals:

• Sinner vs. Draper

• Djokovic vs. Cerundolo

• Musetti vs. Fritz

• Alcaraz vs. Ruud

Semifinals:

• Sinner vs. Djokovic

• Alcaraz vs. Musetti

Final:

• Alcaraz vs. Sinner

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Key Storylines in Miami

• Djokovic Returns - The six-time champ returns to the Sunshine State for the first time since 2019, looking to resuscitate his season in the 305.

• Can Sascha justify his top seed? - Zverev once again comes into the tournament as the top seed and looks to find his form after his flame out in the desert.

• Alcaraz bounce back win? - The last time Carlitos lost in the semi-finals at Indian Wells was 2022 (to Rafa), after that, which he referenced in his post-match press conference, he won Miami. He’s looking for history to repeat itself.

• Sunshine Double Salvation - Zverev, Ruud, Rublev, and Fritz lost early at Indian Wells so they’ll be focused on salvaging their Sunshine Double with a strong showing at Miami Gardens.

Potential Quarter-Final Matchups Based on Seedings:

• (1) A. Zverev vs. (6) J. Draper

• (3) T. Fritz vs. (8) A. Rublev

• (4) N. Djokovic vs. (7) D. Medvedev

• (2) C. Alcaraz vs. (5) C. Ruud

The full draw can be found here.

Something tells me much like at Indian Wells, we won’t see these quarter-finals come to pass. Here’s a breakdown of the men’s side including picks and predictions:

Zverev’s Quarter

Having the top seed in your quarter should be a tough draw for everyone else, but right now it feels like the opposite. Everyone seems to be a tough out for Sascha. As noted above, Zverev will be focused on turning his season around since his Australian Open final loss, and making up for his 2nd round loss to Talon Greikspoor at Indian Wells.

Once again the draw gods haven’t been kind to the top seed, where right off the bat he could meet up and comer Jacob Fearnley in the 2nd round (if Fearnley can get through Benjamin Bonzi).

This quarter looks eerily dangerous as his previous one in the desert, and this time the other top seed in this quarter is newly crowned Indian Wells champion Jack Draper. Griekspoor is once again lurking to set up a potential 4th round clash. However, that rematch is not guaranteed and could end up being an even tougher test for Zverev as Arthur Fils, who was a missed volley away from beating Medvedev to reach the semis at Indian Wells, could be there instead. Before that trouble, Zverev could face massive serving Perricard in the third round.

If Draper and Zverev meet in the quarter-final that will be a great result for Zverev given the players he could face, and it will be impressive for Draper avoiding the emotional hangover of winning the biggest title of his career. Jack could have a tough test up first though, a potential clash with NextGen star Jakub Mensik.

Holger Rune is also in this section and it’ll be interesting how he reacts after his big run at Indian Wells. He’s always been streaky and inconsistent so a big performance at this tournament may foretell a breakout for the rest of the season. He’ll face a big server off the jump, either Opelka or Eubanks and could see Tomas Machac in round 3 and then potentially a rematch of the Indian Wells final with Jack Draper in round 4.

While there could be an emotional letdown, Jack’s form was so good at Indian Wells and his path to the title wasn’t overly taxing, only losing one set to Alcaraz. There is the change of conditions to take into account but no one else in this section thrives in Miami either. This also wasn’t out of nowhere as Jack was playing well in Australia before he had to pull out with injury and he made the final in Doha. Here’s betting that the thicker, humid air in Miami is just as helpful to Jack’s lefty spin as the dry desert.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• A. Zverev vs. J. Fearnley (Round 2)

• A. Fils vs. T. Griekspoor (Round 2)

• A. Zverev vs. A. Fils/T. Griekspoor (Round 4)

• J. Draper vs. J. Mensik (Round 2)

• J. Draper vs. H. Rune (Round 4)

Semifinalist: Jack Draper

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Fritz’s Quarter

In our Indian Wells preview, we highlighted how Fritz found himself in the young guns corner of the draw, which included a ton of NextGen stars and champion Jack Draper. This time around he’s in a difficult portion of the draw full of seasoned veterans (Berrettini, Shapovalov, Humbert, Nishikori, Norrie), a couple of top tens (Rublev, de Minaur) and one knocking on the door (Ben Shelton). Add in Joao Fonseca, fresh off a victory at the loaded Arizona Tennis Classic ATP Challengers tournament in Phoenix and it is really a Quarter of Death (QoD).

Shapo could be waiting for Fritz in round 3 if he can navigate through Jarry or Cobolli. After that test, Fritz could get Shelton or Hurkacz and then either Rublev or de Minuar. Like I said, it’s a loaded section, difficult to predict.

But I’m going to go with Ben Shelton, he made the semis at the AO and quarter’d at Indian Wells, losing to the champion in both instances, so he’s in fine form and flying high after hard launching his new relationship with Trinity Rodman.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• T. Fritz vs. D. Shapovalov (Round 3)

• B. Shelton vs. H. Hurkacz (Round 3)

• J. Fonseca vs. L. Tien (Round 1)

• M. Berrettini vs. K. Nishikori (Round 2)

• M. Berrettini vs. A. Rublev (Round 3)

Semifinalist: Ben Shelton

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Djokovic’s Quarter

Somehow Djokovic lost in the 2nd round at Indian Wells, hasn’t won a match since January and he moved up to the fourth seed? If you say so. Djokovic also finds himself in a tricky section, he’ll face Rinky Hijikata in the 2nd round and then could see rising star Alex Michelsen in round 3 and if he can get through that, he’ll either face Musetti or FAA. Musetti has troubled him on clay in the past1, which may or may not be relevant depending on how fast the courts in Miami are playing but given that Djoker is struggling to find his form, any match could end up being interesting.

On the other side of the quarter you have Tsitsipas, he of the blacked out Babolat racquet, and Medvedev, who the desert seemed to rejuvenate, until he was stopped by an in-form Holger Rune in the semifinals. I think Djokovic finds his game in Miami and sets up a clash with Medvedev in the quarters, which I think Medvedev will be more motivated to take. Novak will be happy to have made the quarters and found his game and if it’s a hot one he won’t want to risk injury or exhaustion and tax himself too much before the clay season ahead.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• D. Medvedev vs. G. Monfils (Round 3)

• D. Medvedev vs. S. Tsitsipas (Round 4)

• N. Djokovic vs. A. Michelsen (Round 3)

• N. Djokovic vs. L. Musetti (Round 4)

Semifinalist: Daniil Medvedev

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Alcaraz Quarter’s

Alcaraz should not mind his draw one bit. He has a bunch of players that aren’t in good form and others that he’s beaten handily at Indian Wells. Ruud should be motivated to make up for his early loss in the desert and he’s historically done well in Miami, playing the final when Alcaraz won in 2022.

Grigor Dimitrov will have some added pressure to back up his finalist result and protect his points from last year which will be tough to do unless he can go ‘God mode’ again in the quarterfinals versus Alcaraz. Grigor’s first match will be against 17 year old Federico Cina. The Italian wild card recipient won his first ever ATP match earlier today and has been talked about in the same breath as that other teen Joao Fonseca.

Tommy Paul lost in the fourth round at Indian Wells to Medvedev so he’ll look to at least make that round to set up a clash with Ruud to see who will face Alcaraz in the quarters. All in all I think a motivated Alcaraz finds his game here and makes it to the semis.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• C. Alcaraz vs. G. Dimitrov (Round 4)

• K. Khachanov vs. N. Kyrgios (Round 2)

• T. Paul vs. A. Bublik (Round 2)

Semifinalist: Carlos Alcaraz

Miami Semifinals:

Jack Draper vs. Ben Shelton

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev

I’ll save the predictions for the quarterfinal preview next week because Miami will likely be a completely different story than Indian Wells so I’m sure we’ll see some surprises.

Tennis is a Struggle for Novak Djokovic

Is it time to start asking the question of Novak Djokovic? Is this The Last Year? It was a strangely listless performance by Novak losing to lucky loser Botic van de Zandschulp in Round 2. It’s the second straight year Novak lost to a lucky loser at Indian Wells, last year losing to Luca Nardi in three sets.

Botic has scored some big wins in recent months, beating a basically retired Rafa at 2024 Davis Cup and a burnt out Alcaraz at the 2024 US Open. The loss looked really glaring when Botic immediately lost to a solid but unspectacular Francisco Cerundolo in straights in the next round.

Ever since 2011, Novak Djokovic has had an aura when he walked onto the court. Opponents would face him with a heaping helping of doubt lodged in their stomachs. They knew that even if they played their best they would still probably lose. The years of comprehensive domination built up that aura. The strength of will and physical toll that players needed to exert to even challenge him was daunting. And now ever since winning the gold medal and completing tennis in the summer of 2024, the will and motivation doesn’t seem to be there.

It probably doesn’t help that his two greatest rivals have retired. Rafa and Roger and the rivalry with them always seemed to spur him on. The fire burned brightest when he was seeking to surpass their records and usurp their thrones. But now with the other members of the Big Three retired, Novak has won, the chase is complete.

Novak’s loss to Botic is his third loss in a row in 2025, something he hasn’t accomplished since 2018 when he was struggling post-elbow surgery to find his old form. There was a period in 2018 where he contemplated retirement but he turned it around winning Wimbledon and the US Open that year, so all might not be lost, but this feels different. It feels different in the way Novak is talking after these defeats and even after his big wins.

“You know, things are different obviously for me the last couple of years. I've been struggling to play on the desired level. Every now and then, I have couple good tournaments, but, you know, mostly it's really a challenge. It's a struggle for me.”

Those are some defeated words from Novak. It doesn’t seem like Father Time is winning the battle so much as he’s just mentally not as interested anymore. The injury issues may have contributed but it seems more so a case of lack of match-play and a lack of drive and determination.

It’s quite the swing because after his win over Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open this year, there was a feeling that he was back. He found that top level of tennis, beating one of the top two players in the game, someone who was desperate to win their first Australian Open after winning two majors last year.

He found that old form in his quarter-final win over Carlos Alcaraz perhaps because he summoned that Big Three rivalry energy towards Alcaraz, someone he could envision on the throne of tennis, someone he could chase. He pulled his hamstring at the end of the first set and still navigated his way through the rest of the match in a bit of a ‘rope a dope’ against Alcaraz. But it was telling after the match that Novak said he wished it was the final. The amount of energy and will he needed to exert for that performance, not only took a toll on his hamstring but also his mind. That comment seemed to say he wasn’t sure he had that performance in him again for the semis and likely Sinner in the final.

And he didn’t. With his thigh heavily strapped in the semi-final, he lost the first set tiebreaker to Sascha Zverev and quickly retired from the match. Retiring so fast he shocked Sascha and the crowd, leaving to a chorus of boos so loud that Sascha had to come to his defence in the on-court interview.

So Novak seems to be caught in-between right now. He can’t get the requisite match-play or match toughness if his level or his mind don’t meet the requirements of the tour. It could be he can’t get up or excited for anything but a major tournament, which is understandable given he’s got 24 majors and 99 titles on the ATP Tour. But these back-to-back-to-back losses have to take a toll on his confidence, making it harder to summon the great form for majors when he really needs it. The heat and sun of Miami await where he hasn’t played since 2019. If he can make a run there, gain some confidence, it’ll silence the doubters but if he falters once again ‘The Last Year’ questions will continue.

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Kyrgios Retires in Tears

Nick Kyrgios’ comeback is not going well. As Nick was seeing the trainer for his wrist pain and realizing that he had to retire from his match against Botic van de Zandschulp, he started to rub his eyes. The reality of the situation and the reality of his surgically repaired wrist, was beginning to dawn on him and the tears started to flow. It’s been basically two years since Nick has participated in professional tennis and the road to becoming the player he once was, seems to be endlessly frustrating.

After his loss he talked about why he was so emotional:

I guess it's just the amount of work I put in and I'm still having so much discomfort in my wrist. That's I guess why I got a bit emotional towards the end because it's one of my favorite tournaments…But look, like, no one in the sport has had a wrist reconstruction and tried to play after that. There's been players that have had wrist surgeries and nowhere near as bad as what I had.

It all sounds very dark and dire for Nick. He said he was planning on going to Miami but he had to see how the wrist responds to treatment. In his press conference, he continued to strike a somber tone as he reminisced on his great 2022 season where it all finally seemed to come together.

I had an amazing season, literally knocking on the door of a Grand Slam, and then you just get pulled right back, and now you're gonna start from -- I literally don't have a ranking at the moment, was out for one-and-a-half years, and I'm trying to work my way back.

2022 was the breakout season everyone expected of someone with that much talent, he was working hard in practice (finally) and the results were starting to show. I was at Indian Wells in 2022 and I got see him play Casper Rudd on Stadium 2. This was the year Casper challenged for world number one making the final of the French and the US Open. Nick toyed with him at Indian Wells winning 6-4, 6-4.

I was also lucky enough to see him face-off against Rafa in the quarters of that tournament. It was a tough three-setter and Rafa was in-form coming off the ‘Miracle in Melbourne’ Aussie win.

Nick gave Rafa all he could handle in that match. The better results would come later in the year when he would make the final at Wimbledon (benefiting from a Rafa withdrawal in the semis), and making the quarters at the US Open for the first time. He won the doubles title at his home slam and ended the year at no. 22 in singles, with a view to reaching greater heights in 2023. Then he withdrew from the 2023 Australian Open citing a knee injury, then wrist surgery and a long odyssey of rehab followed.

And now he’s back but he’s still not himself. He played one match at the Australian Open, he kind of looked out of shape and not match ready. And now in his second match he’s retired in tears, talking about 2022 with an air of nostalgia and frustration that he can’t find that guy again. And it’s becoming easy to wonder for all of us whether we’ll ever see that Nick Kyrgios again.

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Zverev Flops as Top Seed

In our Indian Wells preview we flagged Zverev’s quarter as being trouble for him. It was full of in-form players who won lead-up tournaments, while he was in decidedly bad form after a questionable trip to South America. The added pressure of being the top seed, with a road to potentially taking over the number one ranking while Sinner was suspended, seemed to add to his problems.

After a sub-par performance in South America and Acapulco, he promptly lost his first match in the desert to Tallon Griekspoor, who previously had been 0-18 against top five players. Zverev was 6-4, 5-2 up in the match and ended up losing 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-5. It took Griekspoor six match points to finally end it and after the match signing the camera lens Griekspoor simply wrote, Finally.

Zverev’s season after losing the Australian Open Final can be summed up here:

At his post-match press conference Zverev was asked whether becoming world number one was on his mind:

“It was in the beginning. Now it's less, because I'm just playing terrible. So for me, I have to find my game before thinking about that, because to become World No. 1, you have to win tournaments. I'm not past getting first, second round at the moment. So I need to figure that out first.”

Zverev is not the most popular man on Tennis Twitter, but the Twitter pundits were having a field day at his expense.

After Zverev’s ouster, parts of the draw also blew up, with seeds going down left and right, including: Ruud, Rublev, Djokovic, along with some milder surprise early upsets in Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tomas Machac, Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe. Given the tight turnaround with the Miami Open starting next week, these seeds can take solace in the fact that a bounce-back in Miami can wipe away any bad vibes in the desert.

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Quarter-Final Preview

Compared to the men, the women’s seeds have stood strong against any big upsets. Iga has opened up her bakery again and Aryna, Coco, Madison and Mirra Andreeva are all showing imperious form.

On the men’s side, as noted, there have been upsets but each man that’s reached the quarterfinal has taken out a big name to get there, which could mean we’ll have some incredible quarterfinal matches.

Men’s Quarterfinals:

• C. Alcaraz vs. F. Cerundolo

Alcaraz is on a 15-match-winning streak at Indian Wells. He took Grigor to the woodshed in their fourth round match last night. Alcaraz seems to have once again found his game and really kicked off his season in the desert. He has shown a scary level of tennis, bombing 113 mph forehands all over the court. He’s had the best level at the tournament and I don’t see his winning streak ending here.

• B. Shelton vs. J. Draper

This could be a blockbuster quarterfinal. Both players are in great form and have taken out really good players. Something you don’t get to see often is two lefties battling it out. I’ll give the edge to Draper because he reached a level in the middle of his 4th round match with Fritz that was downright scary. Even Fritz seemed stunned.

Not to mention that Draper took out young phenom Joao Fonseca rather easily (our pick to make the semis 🤦‍♂️). Draper and Alcaraz have been the class of the tournament so far, so a semi between them should be fireworks.

• D. Medvedev vs. A. Fils

Medvedev always seems to find his game at Indian Wells. Once again he’s making a run in the desert and his convincing win over Tommy Paul seemed like the Meddy of old. Arthur Fils played an epic match against Musetti and then backed it up with a solid win over Giron. I’ll go with Medvedev because of the pedigree and his record at Indian Wells but Fils could easily get the upset.

• H. Rune vs. T. Griekspoor

Holger Rune routine’d the Racquet Rejuvenated Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4 (our pick to be in the semi-final🤦‍♂️). Holger’s game is so big that sometimes it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more titles. Tsitsipas was full of confidence coming into the match and for Holger to take him out rather easily was very impressive. Griekspoor took down Zverev but Zverev hasn’t been in great form. I’ll take Rune because of the level he showed in that Tsitsipas win but would not be surprised if Rune lays an egg, he’s so unpredictable.

Semifinal Predictions: Alcaraz vs. Draper & Medvedev vs. Rune

Women’s Quarterfinals:

• A. Sabalenka vs. L. Samsonova

Samsonova has had a great run to the quarters at Indian Wells but it likely ends here. Aryna likes these bouncy, slow hard courts where the balls land right in her strike zone and she’s strong enough to blast her way through.

• M. Keys vs. B. Bencic

Madison is the defending Aussie Open champion and has developed a match toughness she’s never had before. Belinda is on her comeback after becoming a mother and has shown great form and a knowledge of how to play big matches. She takes the ball early and redirects it better than probably anyone in the women’s game. Bencic outfoxed Coco Gauff but I’m not sure she can handle Madison’s pace and power when Madison is on. Their head to head is 2-2 but they haven’t played since 2022. Madison is a completely new player since then and now a major winner taking out the best players in the world.

• M. Andreeva vs. E. Svitolina

Top ten phenom Mirra Andreeva absolutely slaughtered Elena Rybakina the other night and the 17 year old continues to impress with her confidence and poise in big matches. Svitolina had a great win over Jess Pegula, but Mirra taking down Elena Rybakina in such emphatic fashion says something about her form.

• I. Swiatek vs. Q. Zheng

Iga is once again looking dominant, shades of that 2022 form when she swept through and won Doha, Indian Wells and Miami. Her bakery has re-opened handing out at least one bagel or breadstick to each of her opponents. She’s lost a total of 6 games to make the quarterfinals. I’m not betting against that.

Semifinals Predictions: Sabalenka vs. Keys, Andreeva vs. Swiatek

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News and Notes

• Dimitrov and Monfils might have played the match of the tournament in Round 3. On Stadium 2, Dimitrov prevailed past midnight in a third set tiebreaker, with the old veterans sharing a hug at the net after almost three hours of battling it out on the court.

• Carlos Alcaraz is flexing a new tattoo which promos the date of his upcoming Netflix doc, not sure why this warrants a tattoo on the level of his other tattoos which commemorate his grand slam wins, but hey, Netflix money is good.

• It was a comprehensive performance by Rune in his victory over Tsitsipas, maybe his best of the year, including this tweener lob, shot of the year candidate:

• In his match against Damir Dzumhur, Frances Tiafoe forgot his racquets:

• And then in his next match he pretended to forget his racquets again:

• Andy Roddick’s podcast Served pulled the get of the year, getting Rafa Nadal to come on and talk about his life with Andy. It was a great conversation between two retired rivals, and Rafa gave great insights into his retirement, the Olympic torch ceremony, his rivalry with Federer and Djokovic, as well as a fascinating discussion breaking down the Xs and Os of the game.

Indian Wells can feel like a fresh start to the season, a time to shake off the winter February doldrums and bad Aussie Open results and kick the season off anew. It certainly has been that for Carlos Alcaraz as he’s never been past the quarterfinals at the AO but after winning Indian Wells the past two years, he usually goes on to win a major or two the rest of the year.

Alright lets get into it, for reference check out the full draw here.

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Key Storylines in the Desert

• A Sinner-less tournament - The first big tournament missing the suspended best player in the world means that Sascha Zverev is the top seed.

• What’s That Racket Stefano? - A resurgent Tsitsipas armed with a new racquet (speculated to be a Babolat Pure Aero 98), won Dubai his first ATP 500 title after losing 12 ATP 500 finals, and he’s moved back into the top ten.

• Djokovic Potential Blockbusters - Djokovic could meet best bud Nick Kyrgios in the second round and if he gets to the quarter-finals he could battle with a guy named Alcaraz.

• The Coming of Joao - 18-year-old Brazilian phenom Joao Fonseca makes his Indian Wells debut and fans stateside will be drooling with anticipation to check out that electric forehand on the practice courts and in big matches in the desert. He will face Great Britain’s Jacob Fearnley in his first match, with a potential 2nd round match against 13th-seeded Jack Draper.

Potential Quarter-Final Matchups Based on Seedings:

• Zverev (1) vs. Tsitsipas (8)

• Ruud (4) vs. Medvedev (5)

• Fritz (3) vs. Rublev (7)

• Alcaraz (2) vs. Djokovic (6) (!)

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Zverev’s Quarter

If Sascha Zverev was the top seed of a major it would be weird, at a Masters 1000 not so much. He has won seven Masters 1000 but has yet to obtain that elusive major title and the wounds of his loss at the Aussie Open final this past January seem to be lingering. He’s the top seed here but also nowhere near the best player in the world right now. He went to South America in February presumably to get some extra clay court mileage in for a big run at Roland Garros and it was a flop. He lost early to a couple of Argentinians (F. Cerundolo (28) and F. Comesana (86) in Buenes Aires and Rio, respectively), he then went to Acapulco to transition to hard court and lost in his 2nd match to young phenom Learner Tien (which to be fair could have been the e.coli going around).

Sascha is not in a good space right now and he’s got some difficult opponents in his sight line, so this quarter could be up for grabs. He’ll meet a couple of in-form players off the jump, either Kecmanovic or Griekspoor, and then potentially the massive serving Mpetshi-Perricard in the 3rd round. After that, there’s Machac fresh off a title in Acapulco and if he gets that far it could be Tsitsipas armed with booming confidence thanks to his new Babolat racquet.

Tsitsipas could face a rejuvenated Berrettini in the 3rd round, a rematch of their epic three setter in Doha, where Berrettini actually won more points than Tsitsipas. Regardless, I think Tsitsi rides the good vibes of winning Doha and the honeymoon period with the new racquet and makes it to the semis.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• A. Zverev vs. T. Griekspoor/M. Kecmanovic (Round 2)

• A. Zverev vs. Mpetshi-Perricard (Round 3)

• M. Berrettini vs. S. Tsitsipas (Round 3)

Semifinalist: Stefanos Tsitsipas

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Ruud’s Quarter

After Ruud’s early 2nd round exit at the AO to Jakub Mensik, he made the final at the Dallas Open, losing to a peaking Shapovalov, and then he got struck down by the food poisoning outbreak in Acapulco withdrawing from his 2nd round match. Assuming he’s recovered from the e.coli, his draw in comparison to Zverev’s does not feature anyone who’s in a dangerous mood. Musetti and Norrie have barely played since the AO, Medvedev has played but doesn’t have any results to show for it.

Daniil has lost early-ish in every tournament he’s played this year and he doesn’t seem to like the change to the courts at Indian Wells so if he can’t sort out his game in time there could be trouble. He could end up facing young, up and coming Nishesh Basavareddy in the 2nd round who took a set off Novak at the AO earlier this year. If Medvedev and Ruud falter early, than this quarter could be Tommy Paul’s for the taking. Tommy has been in pretty good form, making the quarters at the AO and also losing to Shapo in the semis at Dallas. He made the semis last year and loves the vibes at Indian Wells, playing for the home crowd, so I think he backs up last year’s results again this year.

Potential Popcorn Matchups

• N. Basavareddy vs. D. Medvedev (Round 2)

• T. Paul vs. D. Medvedev (Round 4)

Semifinalist: Tommy Paul

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Fritz’s Quarter

This is the Young Guns Quarter. Fritz heads up a difficult field full of phenoms with firepower and players who found their form in February. You got big forehands, big serves and youth that can cover a helluva a lot of court, with the likes of Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik, Learner Tien, Rinky Hijikata, Matteo Arnaldi, and Brandon Nakashima. Fritz is in a bit of a funk this year and dealing with an abdominal issue. He lost early to Monfils, Shapovalov and Davidovich-Fokina at the AO, Dallas, and Delray, respectively, before withdrawing from Acapulco.

Along with the young guns lurking, there’s also some veteran presence with Karen Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Andrey Rublev in the quarter. Rublev’s fresh off a confidence-building win in Doha and FAA has been showing glimpses of that old promise; playing the final in Dubai, making the semis in Doha, and winning Montpellier.

Jack Draper, who Rublev beat in the Doha final, has also been playing great and could face phenom Joao Fonseca in the 2nd round. After the Doha final, Draper had to withdraw from Dubai to manage an injury, which means he might not be ready for Joao’s firepower. If Joao makes it through Fearnley and Draper, could he shock FAA too? And then set up a rematch with Rublev (who he beat at the AO this year)? Am I really going to predict Fonseca makes the semis here? With so much firepower in this quarter its impossible to predict. So why not? Crazier things have happened and seeing the young phenom breakthrough would be super exciting.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• J. Draper vs. J. Fonseca (Round 2)

• J. Draper vs. F. Auger-Aliassime (Round 3)

• B. Shelton vs. L. Tien (Round 2)

• B. Shelton vs. A. Rublev (Round 4)

Semifinalist: Joao Fonseca

Alcaraz’s Quarter

Carlitos’ quarter could be interesting. Djokovic has once again landed in his section, the third time in a row in 2025. After their epic AO QF, the Doha match up didn’t materialize with both crashing out early. Will it happen this time around? It’s probably up to Djokovic, as Alcaraz has owned this tournament the past two years (not to mention barely losing an epic semi-final against Rafa in 2022). Djokovic crashed out early last year to Luca Nardi and he hasn’t won a match since he withdrew from the AO semi-final against Zverev. His first match could be against bestie Nick Kyrgios, but Kyrgios cut practice short yesterday due to wrist pain so we’ll see if he even plays. If he does play, that wrist won’t get a break facing ball-bashing, lucky loser Botic van de Zandschulp, who has been known to cause an upset or two (see: Alcaraz at the US Open & Rafa at Davis Cup in 2024) so its no guarantee that we’ll see that blockbuster 2nd round match between Nick and Novak.

On Alcaraz’s side of the quarter, things could get complicated after round two if he faces a surging Shapovalov who’s bursting with confidence and bounding around with that lefty firepower again after beating three top-ten seeds en route to winning the Dallas Open. Beyond that there are some question marks, Dimitrov has been struggling with injuries, Korda will have to face Monfils or J.L Struff in Round 2 so its anyone’s guess who will make it to Alcaraz. De Minaur, who faced Alcaraz in the Rotterdam final (stealing a set), could be the last man standing against Djokovic and the last obstacle to a mouth-watering Djokovic/Alcaraz quarter-final.

Potential Popcorn Matchups:

• N. Djokovic vs. N. Kyrgios (Round 2)

• C. Alcaraz vs. D. Shapovalov (Round 3)

• S. Korda vs. G. Monfils/J. Struff (Round 2)

• C. Alcaraz vs. N. Djokovic (Quarter-final)

Semifinalist: Carlos Alcaraz

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Semifinal Predictions:

Tommy Paul def. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Can Tsitsipas new racquet overcome a partisan crowd desperately pulling Tommy Paul to the finish line? I’m not sure it can. The new faster courts will help Tsitsipas’ shots and hurt Tommy Paul’s chances of running down every ball, but Tsitsi’s never made a deep run at Indian Wells and Tommy will have the crowd and the experience playing at Indian Wells on his side. This could easily go either way but I gotta go with the American.

Carlos Alcaraz def. Joao Fonseca

Can you imagine the hype around this match? I’m really just speaking this match into existence by predicting it here cause we need a popcorn semi when we can’t have a Sinner-Alcaraz match. And imagine this is after a Djokovic/Alcaraz QF? SHEESH. Carlos loves the vibes at Indian Wells and even in his first press appearance he says he always looks forward to Indian Wells. Last year, he withstood a bee invasion and still won the tournament, this could be a three-setter but until I see someone take the crown from Carlitos at Indian Wells, I’m not betting against him.

Final Prediction:

Carlos Alcaraz def. Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul has given Alcaraz fits before but also see last sentence above.

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The NextGen Movement

When the draw came out and 18-year old Joao Fonseca was drawn against (9) Andrey Rublev it was on everyone’s upset alert. Joao had dominated qualifying and was coming off winning the NextGen Finals this past December. Those upset alerts ended up being justified as Joao blasted Andrey off the court, a top 10 win for the teen. Immediately the tournament seemed to be the coronation of a NextGen star joining the current crop of superstars. In addition, a couple days before, 20 year old Alex Michelsen took out (11) Stef Tsitsipas and it seemed a generational movement was brewing.

Notably, Michelsen even compared Fonseca to world No.1 Jannik Sinner:

“He’s going to be sick! He reminds me of a mini-Sinner. The way they hit the ball, you don’t come by it very often.”

Which given that Fonseca had hit the hardest forehand of the tournament up to that point, may not be that far fetched.

The NextGen Movement (NGM) continued when 19-year old Nishesh Basavareddy gave Djokovic a fight in the opening round, taking the first set and playing what Novak called “lights-out tennis”. Subsequently, 19-year old Jakub Mensik took out (6) Casper Ruud and the NGM grew strength. Those players in their mid-to-late 20s like Rublev, Tsitsipas and Ruud seemed ready to be put out to pasture.

But then Lorenzo Sonego and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, more or less journeymen on the tour quickly ended Fonseca and Mensik’s AO progress, winning one for their generation. But the NGM struck back on the same night as 19-year old Learner Tien took out (5) Daniil Medvedev. Those wins make this year’s AO just the third Grand Slam1 in which three teenagers have beaten top ten opponents.

Tien and Michelsen both won their next matches making a run into the second week of the tournament but then kind of ran out of gas in the fourth round. Sonego once again clipped a wing off of the NGM, beating Tien in four sets and Michelsen seemed to have no legs in his defeat to Alex de Minaur. Regardless, the NGM is making moves in 2025.

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Danielle Collins In Her Villain Era

When Danielle Collins defeated Australian Destanee Aiava, she not only raised the ire of the Australian crowd during the match but outright incited them after. On her way to shake hands at the net she taunted the crowd, putting her hand to her ear, mouthing ‘how bout that’, kissing her hand and slapping her butt and then doubling down in the post-match on-court interview, her post match press conference and on Instagram. She reminded the booing crowd that they were paying her salary and that they were going to be sending her and her coach on a five star vacation. It was a spectacle that had shades of a Karen telling a police officer that she pays their salary when he won’t arrest the people partying in the park without a permit.

Two nights later, she walked out on RLA to face Madison Keys and was booed relentlessly by the Australian crowd. After she lost in straights to Madison, the Collins-salary-paying crowd let her have it again. DC will walk home with a cheque of approximately $290,000 Aussie dollars and in return the Australian crowd has received a golden ticket to booing Danielle Collins for the rest of her career.

So who really has the last laugh? Well that would be the @wwos social media admin with this caption:

Djokovic Boycotts Post-Match Interview

Novak Djokovic expressed admiration and love for Danielle Collins after she gave it back to the crowd, which may have been some foreshadowing as, even though Novak has won this tournament 10 times, he was mixing it up with boo birds and hecklers through the first few rounds. Novak has been especially ornery, even pointing at hecklers to take a hike after his third round win over Machac.

And then, after Novak’s straight sets fourth round victory over Jiri Lehecka, with Jim Courier waiting in the wings, mic in hand, Novak boycotted the on-court interview. He took the mic from Courier and thanked the crowd, telling them he’ll see them in the next round. The stunned Australian crowd booed Novak as he left the court (though he signed some autographs on the way out).

Commentators assumed he didn’t want to talk because he was fed up with the boo birds and hecklers. However, at his post-match press conference he explained that it was due to offensive comments made to Serbian fans about himself by Tony Jones of Channel 9. As the official broadcaster of the AO, Novak refused the interview in protest, maybe thinking that Jim Courier was working for Channel 9. Unfortunately, Jim Courier was there in his capacity as interviewer for the Australian Open/Tennis Australia and thus innocently got caught in the crossfire of a Novak-spurred controversy.

Here’s the Tony Jones video that had Novak up in arms:

Don’t know much about this Tony Jones character and whether this is his schtick but he seemed to be joking and while it wasn’t that funny and a bit rude, it didn’t seem like something that needed to be outright protested. But hey, maybe Novak’s still a little bit raw after he got booted out of Australia. The crowd’s reaction when he steps out for the blockbuster Alcaraz quarterfinal will be something to see.

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Tony Jones has since come out with his side of the story, saying that when he heard rumblings that Djokovic’s camp was unhappy with his ‘joke’, he immediately searched Novak’s camp out and apologized directly. This was 48 hours ago, prior to Novak’s match with Lehecka.

The plot thickens. Was Djoker trying to take a stand cause he was genuinely hurt, maybe poking at the wound of 2022’s deportation? Or was this manufactured to create some fire in his belly, take something personal to spur him to the championship ala MJ? Only time and the rest of the tournament will tell.

Lucky Loser Wins Big

Eva Lys had a flight scheduled for the third day of the main draw of the Australian Open. She never made that flight. After losing in the third round of qualifying2, she hung around as lucky losers3 are told to do in case of withdrawals in the first round. Eva was 3rd on the list of lucky losers, not someone who usually gets in the tournament, but as luck would have it Anna Kalinskaya came down with a virus and withdrew 10 minutes(!) before her match was to start.

Eva was then installed in her place, too suddenly to even be nervous she said and promptly won that match, switched her flight and then couldn’t stop winning, becoming the first LL to make it to the Australian Open fourth round. Lys told the press she actually rebooked her flight after her first match but picked the end of the first week not thinking she would progress that far.

"We actually changed the flight to [Sunday]," she laughed. "Right now, I think after the press conference we're going to go and try to change it a little bit further. It's actually really funny. We just picked a date. We're like, okay, Sunday is six days away. We're just going to pick Sunday."

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Sunday wasn’t enough because she had a Monday night date with world No. 2 Iga Swiatek. That date ended up being a one hour trip to Iga’s bakery (6-0,6-1) but nevertheless, the 23-year-old world No. 128 will walk away with six times the money she was going to make if she made that post-qualifying flight (cute video where she found out it was $420,000 Australian smackaroos), along with 240 points that will catapult her up the rankings. The fourth round showing is easily her best result at a major, showing that sometimes it pays to be a loser and a little lucky.

Medvedev Catches Big Fine

Medvedev might have had the quote of the tournament in the first round when he complimented his opponent Kasidit Samrej saying that if he played that well he could have whatever he wanted in tennis, money, girls, casino, whatever. Daniil’s post-match interviews are always must-see TV.

Losing in the second round of the AO pocketed Daniil about $150,000 AUD but he’s going to have to give some of that back as he was hit with $123,000 in fines for two Medvedev-ian incidents. The hard-court specialist destroyed his racket on a net camera and then gifted us with another golden quote:

“The camera was very, very strong, because my racquet didn't handle the damage, but the camera did. I was very surprised. The fine is usually for breaking the racquet, and the camera is going to cost some, but I don't think GoPro is that expensive.'

He later threw his racquet at ad boards and after the loss to Tien he skipped out on the post-match news conference, which to be fair was super late as the match ended at 3am.

What’s interesting is that Djokovic not only re-quoted Medvedev’s money, girls, casino line but he also copied Medvedev’s boycott. They really are kindred spirits.

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Monfils Familly Cooking

Everyone is happy for Gael Monfils. Following up his victory in the Auckland ATP 2504, he upset (4) Taylor Fritz in four sets, danced like no one’s watching, and then he had some inspiring words about whether his dream was to win the tournament. I defy anyone to not like this man. Gael seems to be taking a page out of 2024 Grigor Dimitrov’s book with a late career resurgence and you just felt his victory over Taylor was a ‘confidence win’, that perfect mix of being on a hot streak, full of confidence, being old and not giving any fucks.

Not only that, after Gael’s victory over Fritz, his wife Elina Svitolina was next up and she took on the family business of upsetting 4th seeds on Margaret Court Arena, taking out (4) Jasmine Paolini in 3 sets. Elina has proceeded to make the quarterfinals, but unfortunately Gael had to withdraw in the fourth set from his fourth round match with Ben Shelton, the hard yards and grind from his Auckland and Aussie runs catching up with his 38 year old body, but here’s hoping Gael continues the fine run of form. He’ll be next seen in Elina’s box for her quarterfinal match where she’ll face off with Madison Keys for a seat at the semis.

The Monfils family is on top of the world right now.

Key Storylines Heading into the Aussie Open:

• The defending champion, Aryna Sabalenka, heads into the AO far and away the best player on hard courts and the number one player in the world. She’s going for the AO three-peat and back to back majors and unlike many of her competitors there are no outside issues that can cause distraction from that goal.

• The 2nd seed, Iga Swiatek, has distractions galore and along with the doping scandal, she’s come to Melbourne with a whole new coaching team. In her pre-tournament presser she said the new partnership is going well but then she had to plow through a barrage of questions on the melatonin contamination. Not the best foot to get the tournament started on.

• Since Coco crashed out of the US Open in the 4th round last year, she got a new coach and went on a tear to end 2024, winning the China Open, the WTA Finals, rising to no. 3 in the world. She kicked off 2025 by putting on an MVP performance at the United Cup. Most notably, she straight-setted Iga at the WTA Finals and the United Cup. A co-favorite with Aryna.

• When Elena Rybakina parted ways with coach Stefano Vukov just before the 2024 US Open the internet and outside observers rejoiced. They had questioned their coaching relationship amidst a string of mysterious health-related withdrawals by Elena throughout 2024. And then she hired Goran Ivanisevic and she was all smiles and back on the tour. But then she re-hired Stefano and the WTA was forced to admit that he was currently banned from coaching on the tour and there was ongoing investigation underway. Investigating what is entirely unclear. Elena has said she has no problems with him. Rumors abound that the investigation will announce a decision by the end of this week and some clarity will arrive for Elena, Stefano and Goran.

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(1) Aryna Sabalenka’s Quarter Seeds:

• Qinwen Zheng (5)

• Diana Shnaider (12)

• Mirra Andreeva (14)

• Donna Vekic (18)

• Magdalena Frech (23)

• Linda Noskova (29)

Qinwen Zheng, Mirra Andreeva and Donna Vekic landing in Sabalenka’s corner of the draw adds some drama to this section. Qinwen was Aryna’s final opponent last year but it really wasn’t close. Mirra, the 17 year old phenom, just lost to Aryna in Brisbane and who knows what kind of growth she can achieve in a short time but right now Aryna is at a different level. Vekic has the power game to compete with Aryna but the speed and consistency isn’t quite there and while she quartered here two years ago, the rest of her results don’t give much confidence.

I could see a finals rematch in the quarters but I don’t see the result any different. Aryna’s power game can rip through anyone and she is riding high on confidence not having lost a hard court major match in more than a year and in her pre-tournament presser talked about enjoying the feeling of being chased by the rest of the field. That sounds like someone who loves being number one and doesn’t plan on giving it up anytime soon.

Semifinalist: Aryna Sabalenka

(3) Coco Gauff’s Quarter Seeds:

• Jessica Pegula (7)

• Jelena Ostapenko (16)

• Marta Kostyuk (17)

• Karolina Muchova (20)

• Paula Badosa (26)

• Leylah Fernandez (30)

As noted above Coco has been on a world-beating run and at first glance there doesn’t seem much in this quarter of the draw that can trouble her. However, Ostapenko on the right day can blast anyone off the court, Pegula is fresh off a US Open final and Badosa has started to find that old form that had her win Indian Wells. As well, Muchova is dangerous having made the final at the French a couple years back and back to back semis at the US Open the past couple of years.

Perhaps if these players find some inspired form they could cause some problems for Coco. She’s high on confidence but all her success last year was after the last major of the season, and sometimes dominating at a slam is a much different prospect than at the tailend of a long season. That sounds more negative than it should as I’m still taking Coco, mainly because of those two victories over Iga. To me they showed that she’s ready to beat the top players and she’s hungry to prove it in Australia.

Semifinalist: Coco Gauff

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(4) Jasmine Paolini’s Quarter Seeds:

• Elena Rybakina (6)

• Danielle Collins (10)

• Madison Keys (19)

• Katie Boulter (22)

• Elina Svitolina (28)

• Dayana Yastremska (32)

The big question in this quarter is whether Paolini can back up her ranking and major results from last year. She came out of relative obscurity last year to final at RG and Wimbledon. She made the 4th round of every major last year after not having been past Round 2 at any major in the previous 4 years of her career.

In her quarter of the draw she’s surrounded by Major finalists and a Slam winner in Elena Rybakina. If any of Danielle Collins, Adelaide winner Madison Keys or Aussie Katie Boulter have a good week they could easily be the semifinalist. Elena comes with coaching controversy swirling around her, Collins hasn’t found that early 2024 form and who knows if Madison will back up her results in Adelaide. Rybakina a former finalist here does have the game that should take her to the semis if she can block out all the Vukov investigation noise. Given this quarter is a bit of a toss up I have to go with the best resume and biggest game in it.

Semifinalist: Elena Rybakina

(2) Iga Swiatek’s Quarter Seeds:

• Emma Navarro (8)

• Daria Kasatkina (9)

• Anna Kalinskaya (13)

• Victoria Azarenka (21)

• Yulia Putintseva (24)

• Maria Sakkari (31)

This quarter is Iga’s to lose, and much like Elena she’ll need to block out the noise from outside distractions. Iga is notoriously protective of, and focused on, her mental state and I think she’ll find some peace on the court away from the pressers asking her about the timeline when she found out she tested positive and how she escaped a lengthy ban. There are a number of solid pros in her quarter but she has to like her draw.

Emma Navarro took out Coco last year at the US Open so she’s a dangerous competitor. Otherwise, I don’t think Azarenka has the firepower anymore to challenge for majors and Kalinskaya is still too inconsistent at slams to be a true contender (though she did make the quarters at the AO last year). If Iga has a dip in form related to outside distractions it could happen but right now, I don’t see it.

Semifinalist: Iga Swiatek

The complete women’s draw can be found here

Semifinal Predictions:

Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff: This semi-final should be absolute cinema and I could easily see Coco Gauff taking this but right now, you simply cannot bet against Aryna she’s the best player on hard court, two time defending AO champion, US Open champion and Number One with a bullet.

Iga Swiatek def. Elena Rybakina: The battle of the women ensnared in controversy through no fault of their own would be another solid semi and I’m taking Iga only because she just recently beat Elena at the United Cup. This could truly go either way and if both of these semis end up happening it will be an epic finish to the women’s tournament. Crossing fingers this shapes up.

2025 AO Final:

Aryna Sabalenka def. Iga Swiatek: These two played the best match of 2024 at the Madrid Open Final and if this final actually happens the hype will be legit. I’m still taking Aryna because she pushed Iga to the limit on Iga’s favourite surface (granted it was clay at altitude) but on hard court Iga has not proven she can challenge Aryna especially the otherworldly level Aryna has found at hard court majors the past few years. You simply cannot bet against Aryna’s results on here and I refuse to do so.

The first major of 2025 is already here but I’m still baffled at how the 2024 season ended. 2024 was a blur, packed with drama, retirements, and historic achievements. With all the storylines and shocking news I probably should have started this Substack last year but here we are.

I’ve been running Baseline Highlights since 2018, trying to keep up with the never-ending tennis season on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube, but with Substack I’m hoping to go a little deeper on the tennis news of the day, doing deep dives on players, events, products and tennis scandals, while interacting with subscribers and maybe having some laughs along the way.

If you enjoy this tennis newsletter please subscribe because it will greatly help keep all the channels alive, as right now they are a labour of love.

Anyway back to 2024; The thing is it’s not immediately clear to me when (or if?) the 2024 tennis season ended. There was the semi-official end of the slam and big title season when Sinner swept through the US Open and ATP Finals. But it felt like it symbolically ended with Rafa’s retirement at Davis Cup in mid-November. And then Joao Fonseca won the NextGen Finals on December 22nd (!). And suddenly, a few days later, the Aussie summer swing was upon us with the 2025 United Cup, Brisbane International and Hong Kong Open starting December 27-30th, 2024 (!). One thing that’s certain is that tennis never stops and truly nothing ever ends.

This first post will break down the 2025 Aussie Open men’s draw quarter by quarter and even give you some predictions on who will end up hoisting the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup. Feel free to roast me in the comments on how wrong I end up being.

And with that I’d like to formally kick off Baseline Highlights’ first Substack post (still trying to figure everything out on this platform so please bear with me).

And. Here. We. Go.

Key Storylines Heading into the Australian Open:

1. Jannik Sinner defending his first grand slam title with the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) appeal and a potential two year suspension hanging over his head.

2. Carlos Alcaraz attempting to become the youngest player ever to complete the Career Slam.

3. Novak Djokovic, with new coach Andy Murray in tow, attempting to regain his Melbourne dominance and win a 25th grand slam and 100th career title.

4. Alexander Zverev entering his first major as the #2 seed, looking to finally win that elusive first grand slam title.

(1) All of these key storylines could play on the mind of each of these stars in a positive or negative light. So far, Jannik has played incredibly well for someone who’s gone through the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) doping process and continues to live every day with the specter of a two year ban due to WADA’s appeal, which he’ll have to drag around until April. Does the axe dangling over his head finally affect his play? Or does he continue mowing down the competition like so much cut grass.

(2) For some reason Alcaraz hasn’t shown his best tennis Down Under. His seasons have really taken off at Indian Wells which catapults him into the clay season and then winning Wimbledon. Can Alcaraz buck the IW trend? When he puts pressure on himself by openly calling out he wants the AO, it sometimes doesn’t go well (see: Paris Olympics gold medal final).

(3) Novak comes into this tournament with a new coach, trying to breath some fire back into his belly and find motivation after completing the game of tennis. Playing in Brisbane was outside the norm for him, a function of not having the late season reps of playing and (usually) winning the ATP Finals. He’s likely a little low on confidence heading into Melbourne but this tournament has always been the bedrock from which he’s built his sterling seasons of yore.

(4) Sascha comes into the first major of the season as the 2nd seed, still major-less but knocking at the door. Can he finally get over the hump? When he gets to the final stages it seems to be more of a battle with himself than his opponent. Or both. No man alive has won majors battling two opponents at the same time.

Jannik Sinner (1)’s Quarter Seeds:

• Alex de Minaur (8)

• Stefanos Tsitsipas (11)

• Holger Rune (13)

• Hubert Hurkacz (18)

• Karen Khachanov (19)

• Francisco Cerundolo (31)

• Flavio Cobolli (32)

The defending champion’s dominance at hard court majors means the only person Sinner would have to fear landing early in his quarter was Novak (maybe Kyrgios for the awkward vibes and handshake?). With neither Nick and Novak landing here, Sinner can breathe a sigh of relief but he does have a tough 1st round opponent in Nico Jarry, so if he has some defending champion jitters it could be a tight one. Berrettini could find his old form but that backhand side still isn’t strong enough to stand up to Sinner, so beyond that he will likely breeze to the semis unless Tsitsipas’ new service motion turns him into Pistol Pete and Holger finds his 2022 Paris Indoors form.

Popcorn R1 Matchups:

Jannik Sinner vs. Nicolas Jarry

Cameron Norrie vs. Matteo Berrettini

Holger Rune vs. Zhizhen Zhang

Semifinalist: Jannik Sinner

Taylor Fritz (4)’s Quarter Seeds:

• Daniil Medvedev (6)

• Andrey Rublev (9)

• Lorenzo Musetti (16)

• Frances Tiafoe (17)

• Alexei Popyrin (25)

• Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard (30)

Fritz and Medvedev are on a collision course but there are a bunch of dark horse candidates that could cause some heartburn for the seeds. No one wants to see Mpetschi Perricard and his 120 Mph average SECOND serve in their part of the draw, who’s built to be a spoiler for years to come. Fresh off his NextGen title Joao Fonseca is set to face Rublev in the first round and even though Rublev is the much higher seed that match is on everyone’s upset alert. Can Fritz repeat his US Open performance? Is Medvedev getting enough sleep with the birth of his second child? A lot of questions in this quarter and Sinner’s opponent in the semis could easily be someone who’s never been there before.

Having said that, Medvedev seems relaxed and happy based on pre-tournament press conference seemingly buoyed by the birth of his second child. In that presser he says he had one of his best off-seasons in awhile and that players will see ‘a lot of interesting things from me’ (standing close to the baseline on return?). That is an insane thing to hear from one of the most unpredictably volatile guys on tour. I, for one, can’t wait to see what tricks the ATP’s premier trickster has up his sleeve for 2025. Daniil always excels at the AO so a rejuvenated Medvedev with ‘interesting’ tactics could be a force to be reckoned with in this quarter of the draw.

Popcorn R1 Matchups

Andrey Rublev v. Joao Fonseca

Corentin Moutet vs Alexei Popyrin

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Denis Shapovalov

Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard

Semi finalist: Daniil Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz (3)’s Quarter Seeds:

• Novak Djokovic (7)

• Grigor Dimitrov (10)

• Jack Draper (15)

• Sebastian Korda (22)

• Jiri Lehecka (24)

• Tomas Machac (26)

• Jordan Thompson (27)

And here we are. The blockbuster quarter. The QOD (Quarter of Death). The one to rule them all. Okay I’ll stop. But this quarter is chock full of GOATs, Future GOATs, grizzled veterans on the upswing, young up and comers, and dangerous dark horses.

Is Novak back in form? Brisbane didn’t really give us much. Losing to Opelka could have been Opelka serve botting or it could have been Novak’s rust. Hard to say, but when has Novak ever been rusty in Australia? He always comes in with no tournament practice and goes and wins the darn thing. His loss to Reilly in Brisbane was a red flag which maybe turned a bit yellow with Reilly’s run to the final but still, this is Novak. He doesn’t lose early in Australia. Questions involving Father Time are beginning to bubble up.

This has to be one of the toughest draws Novak’s had since he became no.1 back in 2011. He’s got a bunch of land mines in his quarter including 19 year old wunderkind Basavareddy in the first round, then Machac (a tough out), his nemesis Opelka again waiting to serve from a tree in the 3rd round, and Dimitrov and Lehecka lurking— not to mention the final quarter boss: Alcaraz.

Not loving Novak’s chances but it is foolish to bet against a 10-time AO winner. It is also foolish to bet against a guy who won two majors last year - Alcaraz is armed with a new (old) hairdo, a heavier racquet and a new smoother service motion so the ingredients are there for Career Slam history.

Popcorn R1 Matchups:

Novak Djokovic vs. Nishesh Basavareddy

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Shevchenko

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Fabio Fognini

Semifinalist: Carlos Alcaraz

Alexander Zverev (2)’s Quarter Seeds:

• Casper Ruud (6)

• Tommy Paul (12)

• Ugo Humbert (14)

• Arthur Fils (20)

• Alejandro Tabilo (23)

• Sebastian Baez (28)

• Felix Auger-Aliassime (29)

Before we get to Zverev’s draw you need to watch the moment when Novak crashed Sascha’s presser and asked him if the secret to him winning a grand slam was found in outer space. It was a bit of ribbing between friends with an undercurrent of getting in each other’s head. I still don’t know what to make of it.

Anyway, even an astronaut can see that Sascha has probably the best draw he could have asked for. Ruud could be the toughest test, having beaten Zverev on hard court (2022 Miami QF), but Ruud has never been past the 4th round at the AO and Zverev seems to be on the verge of….something.

Nick Kyrgios’ return to grand slam tennis lands him in this quarter of the draw with a potential 3rd round match up with Zverev in the cards. The question will be whether Nick can get there after he announced he’s dealing with a grade 1 abdominal strain, in addition to lack of match play after a two year injury layoff.

FAA is in the final at the Adelaide International which could be a sign of a resurgence or it could be a sign of a 250 tournament without top level competition. Jakub Mensik has been skyrocketing up the rankings taking out Ben Shelton recently in Auckland. Winning at any level breeds confidence and that’s what you should look for in a dark horse candidate. Arthur Fils is also someone who could possibly trouble Zverev, beating him on home soil in Hamburg (on clay but still). All of this to say that FAA, Mensik and Fils will have to prove they can do it in best of five or else this is a cakewalk for Zverev to the semis.

Popcorn R1 Matchups

Nick Kyrgios vs. Jacob Fearnley

Arther Fils vs. Otto Virtanen

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

Semifinalist: Alexander Zverev

The complete men’s draw can be found here.

Semifinal Predictions:

These are my pre-tournament predictions but I might come back to these after the first week and see how I have done and what kind of wild swings the tournament has taken.

Jannik Sinner def. Daniil Medvedev - Maybe Medvedev’s ‘interesting’ things find a way to stop Sinner’s onslaught of power and speed? I don’t know, they would have to be mindblowingly interesting.

Carlos Alcaraz def. Alexander Zverev - Armed with a renewed service motion and refreshed mentality, Carlos gets revenge for his quarter-final loss last year.

2025 AO Final:

Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner - Alcaraz seems to be all or nothing, if he’s made the final then he’s in good form and he’s shown he can beat Sinner at a major, always rising to the Jannik challenge. This may be very dumb betting against Sinner who is far and away the best player in the world right now but I’m kinda betting that Jannik may finally feel the weight of the WADA cloud overhead.